COTTON: The 2010/11 U.S. cotton projections include higher
supplies offset by higher exports relative to last season, resulting in
marginally lower ending stocks. Production is projected at 16.7
million bales, which is based on the March 31 Prospective Plantings,
combined with 7-percent abandonment and a yield of 815 pounds per
harvested acre. Projected abandonment is reduced from the 10-year
average of 11 percent due to unusually favorable soil moisture in
Texas. Domestic mill use is projected at 3.3 million bales, a marginal
reduction from 2009/10. Exports are projected to rise 1.5 million
bales from 2009/10 to 13.5 million, as foreign demand is expected to
outpace supply. Ending stocks are projected at 3.0 million bales, the
lowest since 1995/96. The projected range for the marketing-year
average price received by producers is 60 to 74 cents per pound.
World cotton production is projected to rise nearly 11 million bales in
2010/11, but supplies will increase less than 1 percent from last
season owing to sharply lower beginning stocks. Production is
expected to rise in nearly all cotton-producing countries, with the
United States, India, Brazil, and Pakistan accounting for about 70
percent of the increase. World consumption is projected to rise 2.8
percent, supported by economic recovery while at the same time
constrained by limited supplies. An increase in China’s imports to
11.5 million bales is boosting world trade. With a slight increase in
production and declining stocks, China will need to rely on imports to
sustain a projected 3 percent increase in consumption. World ending
stocks are projected to decline 2.6 million bales to 50.1 million. The
stocks-to-consumption ratio of 42 percent is the lowest since
1994/95.
Revisions to the 2009/10 balance sheets show higher beginning
stocks, higher production, and lower consumption, resulting in an
increase of 1.8 million bales in world ending stocks. China accounts
for most of the increase, due to higher production and imports.
China’s production is raised 1.0 million bales based on reported
higher production for Xinjiang; imports are raised 500,000 bales
reflecting activity to date. Consumption is reduced for Pakistan,
Turkey, and the United States, but is raised for India and Vietnam.
U.S. 2009/10 production is raised 38,000 bales consistent with
NASS’s final production estimate. The forecast range for the
marketing-year average price received by producers is lowered 1 cent
on the upper end of the range.
WASDE-482-17 May 2010
U. S. Cotton Supply and Use 1/
===============================================================================
: : : 2010/11 Projections
Item : 2008/09 : 2009/10 :===============================
: : Est. : May
===============================================================================
: Million acres
Area :
Planted : 9.47 9.15 10.51 *
Harvested : 7.57 7.53 9.83 *
:
: Pounds
Yield per harvested :
acre : 813 777 815 *
:
: Million 480 pound bales
:
Beginning stocks 2/ : 10.05 6.34 3.10
Production : 12.82 12.19 16.70
Imports : 0.00 0.01 0.00
Supply, total : 22.87 18.53 19.80
Domestic use : 3.59 3.40 3.30
Exports : 13.28 12.00 13.50
Use, total : 16.86 15.40 16.80
Unaccounted 3/ : -0.33 0.03 0.00
Ending stocks : 6.34 3.10 3.00
:
Avg. farm price 4/ : 47.8 61.5-64.5 60.0-74.0
===============================================================================
1/ Upland and extra-long staple; marketing year beginning August 1. Totals may
not add due to rounding. 2/ Based on Bureau of Census data. 3/ Reflects the
difference between the previous season's supply less total use and ending
stocks based on Bureau of Census data. 4/ Cents per pound for upland cotton.
* Planted area as reported in March 31 "Prospective Plantings." Projected
harvested area is based on the 2000-2009 average abandonment, weighted by
region and adjusted to reflect unusually favorable soil moisture in the
Southwest. Projected yield per harvested acre is based on 2005-2009 average
yields, weighted by region.
WASDE-482-26 May 2010
World Cotton Supply and Use 1/
(Million 480-pound bales)
================================================================================
: Supply : Use : :
Region :=========================:================: Loss : Ending
:Beginning:Produc-:Imports:Domestic:Exports: 2/ : stocks
: stocks : tion : : : : :
================================================================================
:
: 2008/09
:
World : 62.89 107.46 30.04 109.74 30.16 -2.67 63.16
United States : 10.05 12.82 3/ 3.59 13.28 -0.33 6.34
Total foreign : 52.83 94.64 30.04 106.15 16.88 -2.33 56.82
Major exporters 4/ : 18.81 42.36 1.54 26.83 13.93 -0.19 22.15
Central Asia 5/ : 2.42 7.12 0.01 1.60 4.45 0.00 3.49
Afr. Fr. Zone 6/ : 0.67 2.41 3/ 0.19 2.20 0.00 0.70
S. Hemis. 7/ : 8.30 8.68 0.31 5.52 4.60 -0.20 7.38
Australia : 0.60 1.50 3/ 0.05 1.20 -0.07 0.93
Brazil : 6.25 5.48 0.05 4.20 2.74 -0.15 4.99
India : 6.63 22.60 0.80 17.75 2.36 0.00 9.92
Major importers 8/ : 32.11 49.51 26.03 75.04 1.88 -2.15 32.88
Mexico : 0.93 0.57 1.32 1.85 0.18 0.03 0.76
China : 20.50 36.70 7.00 44.00 0.08 -2.25 22.37
EU-27 9/ : 0.67 1.23 0.96 1.14 1.01 0.05 0.65
Turkey : 2.15 1.93 2.92 4.90 0.14 -0.09 2.05
Pakistan : 5.39 9.00 1.95 11.25 0.38 0.03 4.69
Indonesia : 0.39 0.03 2.00 2.00 0.02 0.05 0.35
Thailand : 0.32 3/ 1.60 1.60 0.00 0.03 0.29
Bangladesh : 0.62 0.04 3.80 3.75 0.00 0.01 0.70
Vietnam : 0.25 0.01 1.23 1.25 0.00 0.00 0.24
:
: 2009/10 (Estimated)
:
World : 63.16 102.91 34.62 115.89 34.59 -2.55 52.75
United States : 6.34 12.19 0.01 3.40 12.00 0.03 3.10
Total foreign : 56.82 90.72 34.61 112.49 22.59 -2.58 49.65
Major exporters 4/ : 22.15 42.56 1.50 28.77 19.21 -0.19 18.41
Central Asia 5/ : 3.49 6.22 0.01 1.69 5.94 0.00 2.10
Afr. Fr. Zone 6/ : 0.70 2.16 3/ 0.19 2.16 0.00 0.51
S. Hemis. 7/ : 7.38 9.25 0.34 5.70 4.47 -0.20 7.01
Australia : 0.93 1.60 3/ 0.04 1.78 -0.07 0.79
Brazil : 4.99 5.85 0.10 4.40 1.90 -0.15 4.79
India : 9.92 23.50 0.60 19.50 6.20 0.00 8.32
Major importers 8/ : 32.88 45.58 30.46 79.47 2.24 -2.39 29.61
Mexico : 0.76 0.42 1.50 1.90 0.10 0.03 0.66
China : 22.37 32.50 10.00 47.50 0.03 -2.50 19.84
EU-27 9/ : 0.65 1.01 0.89 0.98 1.06 0.05 0.46
Turkey : 2.05 1.75 3.60 5.30 0.15 -0.08 2.03
Pakistan : 4.69 9.80 1.70 11.25 0.75 0.03 4.16
Indonesia : 0.35 0.03 2.10 2.05 0.02 0.05 0.36
Thailand : 0.29 3/ 1.80 1.78 0.01 0.03 0.29
Bangladesh : 0.70 0.05 4.00 4.00 0.00 0.01 0.74
Vietnam : 0.24 0.02 1.70 1.60 0.00 0.00 0.36
================================================================================
1/ Marketing year beginning August 1. Totals may not add exactly and trade
may not balance due to rounding and other factors. 2/ Generally reflects
cotton lost or destroyed in the marketing channel; for Australia, Brazil,
China, and the United States, reflects the difference between implicit stocks
based on supply less total use and indicated ending stocks. 3/ Less than
5,000 bales. 4/ Includes Egypt and Syria in addition to the countries and
regions listed. 5/ Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan,
Turkmenistan, and Uzbekistan. 6/ Benin, Burkino Faso, Cameroon, Central
African Republic, Chad, Cote d'Ivoire, Mali, Niger, Senegal, and Togo. 7/
Argentina, Australia, Brazil, Paraguay, South Africa, Tanzania, and Zimbabwe.
8/ In addition to the countries and regions listed, includes Hong Kong, Japan,
Russia, South Korea, and Taiwan. 9/ Includes intra-EU trade.
WASDE-482-27 May 2010
World Cotton Supply and Use 1/
(Million 480-pound bales)
================================================================================
: Supply : Use : :
Region :=========================:================: Loss : Ending
:Beginning:Produc-:Imports:Domestic:Exports: 2/ : stocks
: stocks : tion : : : : :
================================================================================
:
: 2010/11 (Projected)
World :
May : 52.75 113.88 35.73 119.08 35.72 -2.58 50.13
United States :
May : 3.10 16.70 3/ 3.30 13.50 0.00 3.00
Total foreign :
May : 49.65 97.18 35.73 115.78 22.22 -2.58 47.13
Major exporters 4/ :
May : 18.41 46.85 1.43 29.94 18.63 -0.19 18.30
Central Asia 5/May : 2.10 6.84 0.01 1.73 5.45 0.00 1.76
Afr. Fr. Zn. 6/May : 0.51 2.61 3/ 0.19 2.38 0.00 0.56
S. Hemis 7/ May : 7.01 10.82 0.30 5.95 4.68 -0.20 7.69
Australia May : 0.79 2.00 3/ 0.04 1.85 -0.07 0.97
Brazil May : 4.79 6.80 0.09 4.60 2.00 -0.15 5.23
India May : 8.32 25.00 0.63 20.40 5.70 0.00 7.85
Major importers 8/ :
May : 29.61 47.58 31.69 81.60 2.44 -2.39 27.22
Mexico May : 0.66 0.55 1.60 1.90 0.20 0.03 0.69
China May : 19.84 33.00 11.50 49.00 0.03 -2.50 17.82
EU-27 9/ May : 0.46 1.33 0.84 0.93 1.21 0.05 0.44
Turkey May : 2.03 2.10 2.70 5.40 0.15 -0.08 1.36
Pakistan May : 4.16 10.50 1.90 11.40 0.70 0.03 4.44
Indonesia May : 0.36 0.03 2.20 2.10 0.02 0.05 0.42
Thailand May : 0.29 3/ 1.80 1.78 0.01 0.03 0.28
Bangladesh May : 0.74 0.05 4.25 4.25 0.00 0.01 0.78
Vietnam May : 0.36 0.02 1.78 1.80 0.00 0.00 0.35
================================================================================
1/ Marketing year beginning August 1. Totals may not add exactly and trade
may not balance due to rounding and other factors. 2/ Generally reflects
cotton lost or destroyed in the marketing channel; for Australia, Brazil,
China, and the United States, reflects the difference between implicit stocks
based on supply less total use and indicated ending stocks. 3/ Less than
5,000 bales. 4/ Includes Egypt and Syria in addition to the countries and
regions listed. 5/ Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan,
Turkmenistan, and Uzbekistan. 6/ Benin, Burkino Faso, Cameroon, Central
African Republic, Chad, Cote d'Ivoire, Mali, Niger, Senegal, and Togo. 7/
Argentina, Australia, Brazil, Paraguay, South Africa, Tanzania, and Zimbabwe.
8/ In addition to the countries and regions listed, includes Hong Kong, Japan,
Russia, South Korea, and Taiwan. 9/ Includes intra-EU trade.
