Cotton related extracts from World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates report
COTTON: The 2010/11 U.S. cotton forecasts include higher
production, domestic mill use, and exports relative to last month.
Production of 18.8 million bales is nearly 2 percent above last
month, based on increases across all regions of the cotton belt.
Domestic mill use is raised to 3.6 million bales, reflecting recent
increases in consumption rates and prospects for additional
spinning capacity. Exports are raised 500,000 bales to 15.5 million
due to continued very tight foreign supplies. U.S. ending stocks are
now forecast at 2.7 million bales, 500,000 bales below last month.
If realized, both the stocks level and the stocks-to-use ratio of 14
percent would be the smallest since 1995/96. The average price
received by producers is forecast at 63 to 77 cents per pound, 2
cents above last month. The midpoint of the interval, 70 cents per
pound, would also be the highest price since 1995/96.
The aggregate world cotton 2010/11 forecasts are adjusted slightly
from last month. World production is raised marginally, as
reductions for China, Pakistan, and Tanzania are more than offset
by increases for Australia and the United States. Consumption is
reduced for Pakistan and others but is raised for India and the
United States, resulting in a slight net reduction. World trade is
reduced, due mainly to a 1.5-million-bale reduction in exports by
India resulting from the recent restrictions imposed by the
government. Lower exports by India are mostly offset by higher
exports from Australia, the United States, and Brazil. World ending
stocks are about unchanged from last month. The projected world
stocks-to-use ratio of 38 percent is the lowest since 1994/95.
World and U.S. Supply and Use for Cotton 1/
Million 480-lb. bales
===============================================================================
: : Total : : Total : Ending
Commodity : Output : Supply : Trade 2/ : Use : Stocks
===============================================================================
:
: World
2008/09 : 107.14 167.75 30.09 109.94 60.44
2009/10 (Est.) : 101.15 161.59 35.59 117.20 46.98
2010/11 (Proj.) :
August : 116.85 164.43 38.24 120.87 45.61
September : 116.95 163.93 37.96 120.53 45.44
: United States
2008/09 : 12.82 22.87 13.26 3.59 6.34
2009/10 (Est.) : 12.19 18.53 12.04 3.45 3.00
2010/11 (Proj.) :
August : 18.53 21.64 15.00 3.40 3.20
September : 18.84 21.84 15.50 3.60 2.70
: Foreign 3/
2008/09 : 94.32 144.88 16.83 106.35 54.10
2009/10 (Est.) : 88.96 143.06 23.55 113.75 43.98
2010/11 (Proj.) :
August : 98.32 142.79 23.24 117.47 42.41
September : 98.11 142.09 22.46 116.93 42.74
===============================================================================
1/ Marketing year beginning August 1. 2/ Based on export estimate. 3/ Total
Foreign is equal to world minus United States. See global cotton tables for
treatment of export/import imbalances.
WASDE-486-26 September 2010
World Cotton Supply and Use 1/
(Million 480-pound bales)
================================================================================
: Supply : Use : :
Region :=========================:================: Loss : Ending
:Beginning:Produc-:Imports:Domestic:Exports: 2/ : stocks
: stocks : tion : : : : :
================================================================================
:
: 2008/09
:
World : 60.61 107.14 30.07 109.94 30.09 -2.65 60.44
United States : 10.05 12.82 3/ 3.59 13.26 -0.32 6.34
Total foreign : 50.56 94.32 30.07 106.35 16.83 -2.33 54.10
Major exporters 4/ : 17.73 42.32 1.54 26.83 13.88 -0.19 21.08
Central Asia 5/ : 2.34 7.08 0.01 1.60 4.45 0.00 3.38
Afr. Fr. Zone 6/ : 0.67 2.41 3/ 0.19 2.15 0.00 0.75
S. Hemis. 7/ : 8.30 8.68 0.31 5.52 4.60 -0.20 7.38
Australia : 0.60 1.50 3/ 0.05 1.20 -0.07 0.93
Brazil : 6.25 5.48 0.05 4.20 2.74 -0.15 4.99
India : 5.63 22.60 0.80 17.75 2.36 0.00 8.92
Major importers 8/ : 30.99 49.21 26.06 75.24 1.88 -2.15 31.29
Mexico : 0.93 0.57 1.32 1.85 0.18 0.03 0.76
China : 20.50 36.70 7.00 44.00 0.08 -2.25 22.37
EU-27 9/ : 0.67 1.23 0.96 1.14 1.01 0.05 0.65
Turkey : 1.95 1.93 2.92 5.10 0.14 -0.09 1.65
Pakistan : 4.47 8.70 1.95 11.25 0.38 0.03 3.47
Indonesia : 0.39 0.03 2.00 2.00 0.02 0.05 0.35
Thailand : 0.32 3/ 1.60 1.60 0.00 0.03 0.29
Bangladesh : 0.62 0.04 3.80 3.75 0.00 0.01 0.70
Vietnam : 0.25 0.01 1.25 1.25 0.00 0.00 0.26
:
: 2009/10 (Estimated)
:
World : 60.44 101.15 36.14 117.20 35.59 -2.04 46.98
United States : 6.34 12.19 3/ 3.45 12.04 0.04 3.00
Total foreign : 54.10 88.96 36.14 113.75 23.55 -2.08 43.98
Major exporters 4/ : 21.08 41.58 1.54 28.74 20.06 -0.19 15.59
Central Asia 5/ : 3.38 5.99 3/ 1.69 5.84 0.00 1.84
Afr. Fr. Zone 6/ : 0.75 2.16 3/ 0.18 2.22 0.00 0.51
S. Hemis. 7/ : 7.38 8.80 0.39 5.70 4.93 -0.20 6.14
Australia : 0.93 1.60 3/ 0.04 2.10 -0.07 0.46
Brazil : 4.99 5.35 0.15 4.40 1.99 -0.15 4.25
India : 8.92 23.20 0.60 19.50 6.55 0.00 6.67
Major importers 8/ : 31.29 44.88 31.92 80.81 2.32 -1.89 26.86
Mexico : 0.76 0.42 1.40 1.90 0.10 0.03 0.56
China : 22.37 32.00 10.94 48.50 0.03 -2.00 18.78
EU-27 9/ : 0.65 1.01 0.91 0.99 1.06 0.05 0.47
Turkey : 1.65 1.75 4.30 5.80 0.15 -0.08 1.83
Pakistan : 3.47 9.60 1.40 11.00 0.75 0.03 2.70
Indonesia : 0.35 0.03 2.10 2.05 0.02 0.05 0.36
Thailand : 0.29 3/ 1.81 1.78 0.01 0.03 0.30
Bangladesh : 0.70 0.05 4.00 4.00 0.00 0.01 0.74
Vietnam : 0.26 0.02 1.70 1.60 0.00 0.00 0.38
================================================================================
1/ Marketing year beginning August 1. Totals may not add exactly and trade
may not balance due to rounding and other factors. 2/ Generally reflects
cotton lost or destroyed in the marketing channel; for Australia, Brazil,
China, and the United States, reflects the difference between implicit stocks
based on supply less total use and indicated ending stocks. 3/ Less than
5,000 bales. 4/ Includes Egypt and Syria in addition to the countries and
regions listed. 5/ Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan,
Turkmenistan, and Uzbekistan. 6/ Benin, Burkino Faso, Cameroon, Central
African Republic, Chad, Cote d'Ivoire, Mali, Niger, Senegal, and Togo. 7/
Argentina, Australia, Brazil, Paraguay, South Africa, Tanzania, and Zimbabwe.
8/ In addition to the countries and regions listed, includes Hong Kong, Japan,
Russia, South Korea, and Taiwan. 9/ Includes intra-EU trade.
WASDE-486-27 September 2010
World Cotton Supply and Use 1/
(Million 480-pound bales)
================================================================================
: Supply : Use : :
Region :=========================:================: Loss : Ending
:Beginning:Produc-:Imports:Domestic:Exports: 2/ : stocks
: stocks : tion : : : : :
================================================================================
:
: 2010/11 (Projected)
World :
August : 47.58 116.85 38.25 120.87 38.24 -2.04 45.61
September : 46.98 116.95 37.96 120.53 37.96 -2.04 45.44
United States :
August : 3.10 18.53 0.01 3.40 15.00 0.04 3.20
September : 3.00 18.84 3/ 3.60 15.50 0.04 2.70
Total foreign :
August : 44.48 98.32 38.24 117.47 23.24 -2.08 42.41
September : 43.98 98.11 37.96 116.93 22.46 -2.08 42.74
Major exporters 4/ :
August : 15.95 48.54 1.94 29.93 19.85 -0.19 16.84
September : 15.59 49.17 2.12 30.03 19.12 -0.19 17.90
Central Asia 5/Aug : 2.01 6.97 0.01 1.73 5.72 0.00 1.53
Sep : 1.84 6.97 0.01 1.73 5.66 0.00 1.43
Afr. Fr. Zn. 6/Aug : 0.51 2.66 3/ 0.18 2.45 0.00 0.53
Sep : 0.51 2.76 3/ 0.18 2.57 0.00 0.52
S. Hemis 7/ Aug : 6.15 11.32 0.81 5.95 4.73 -0.20 7.80
Sep : 6.14 11.84 1.11 5.95 5.45 -0.20 7.90
Australia Aug : 0.46 2.30 3/ 0.04 2.00 -0.07 0.80
Sep : 0.46 3.00 3/ 0.04 2.50 -0.07 1.00
Brazil Aug : 4.26 7.00 0.60 4.60 1.90 -0.15 5.51
Sep : 4.25 7.00 0.90 4.60 2.20 -0.15 5.50
India Aug : 6.87 26.00 0.63 20.40 6.50 0.00 6.59
Sep : 6.67 26.00 0.50 20.50 5.00 0.00 7.67
Major importers 8/ :
August : 26.95 46.92 33.62 83.33 2.09 -1.89 23.96
September : 26.86 46.19 33.17 82.69 2.11 -1.89 23.31
Mexico Aug : 0.56 0.64 1.40 1.90 0.15 0.03 0.53
Sep : 0.56 0.61 1.40 1.90 0.15 0.03 0.50
China Aug : 19.28 33.00 12.50 50.00 0.03 -2.00 16.76
Sep : 18.78 32.50 12.75 50.00 0.03 -2.00 16.01
EU-27 9/ Aug : 0.46 1.38 0.82 0.91 1.26 0.05 0.44
Sep : 0.47 1.38 0.84 0.93 1.28 0.05 0.43
Turkey Aug : 1.83 2.30 3.40 6.00 0.15 -0.08 1.46
Sep : 1.83 2.30 3.40 6.00 0.15 -0.08 1.46
Pakistan Aug : 2.30 9.50 2.30 11.50 0.30 0.03 2.27
Sep : 2.70 9.30 1.80 11.00 0.30 0.03 2.47
Indonesia Aug : 0.36 0.03 2.20 2.10 0.02 0.05 0.42
Sep : 0.36 0.03 2.13 2.10 0.02 0.05 0.35
Thailand Aug : 0.29 3/ 1.80 1.78 0.01 0.03 0.28
Sep : 0.30 3/ 1.75 1.70 0.01 0.03 0.32
Bangladesh Aug : 0.74 0.05 4.25 4.25 0.00 0.01 0.78
Sep : 0.74 0.05 4.15 4.20 0.00 0.01 0.73
Vietnam Aug : 0.38 0.02 1.75 1.80 0.00 0.00 0.35
Sep : 0.38 0.02 1.70 1.75 0.00 0.00 0.35
================================================================================
1/ Marketing year beginning August 1. Totals may not add exactly and trade
may not balance due to rounding and other factors. 2/ Generally reflects
cotton lost or destroyed in the marketing channel; for Australia, Brazil, and
the United States, reflects the difference between implicit stocks based on
supply less total use and indicated ending stocks. 3/ Less than 5,000 bales.
4/ Includes Egypt and Syria in addition to the countries and regions listed.
5/ Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, and
Uzbekistan. 6/ Benin, Burkino Faso, Cameroon, Central African Republic, Chad,
Cote d'Ivoire, Mali, Niger, Senegal, and Togo. 7/ Argentina, Australia,
Brazil, Paraguay, South Africa, Tanzania, and Zimbabwe. 8/ In addition to the
countries and regions listed, includes Hong Kong, Japan, Russia, South Korea,
and Taiwan. 9/ Includes intra-EU trade.
