Again, higher prices are just an indicator of this. The cause of the demand shift would be from polyester getting relatively more expensive, or a shift in consumer preferences for cotton over polyester, or an increase in consumer income, or an increase in consumer spending on apparel. 

I do not expect any of these things to happen anytime soon. But they need to happen. Without them we can see no sustained increase in cotton prices. And when they do happen it will show up as an altered dance pattern in Figure 1.  I’ll be watching and waiting.

For additional thoughts on these and other cotton marketing topics, please visit my weekly on-line newsletter at http://agrilife.org/cottonmarketing/