DJ ICE Cotton Review: Further Weakness Due To Soft Economic Data

DJ ICE Cotton Review: Further Weakness Due To Soft Economic Data

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Benchmark cotton futures weakened Friday with other markets such as equities
as market participants continued to worry about a spate of soft economic data
all week.

Benchmark December cotton fell 0.92 cent, or 1.2%, to 75.53 cents per pound
on ICE Futures U.S.

Mike Stevens, independent cotton analyst in Mandeville, La., blamed the
weakness on the cumulative effect of a number of weak economic reports in China
and the U.S. this week. That included Purchasing Managers Indexes in both
countries, U.S. consumer confidence and a Conference Board report on Chinese
leading economic indicators.

Friday's soft U.S. jobs report added to the recently weaker tone in cotton,
said one trader.

June non-farm payrolls fell 125,000, when expectations were for a 110,000
decline. Still, the results were somewhat mixed, as the job losses were largely
due to temporary Census workers and as private-sector employment rose.

Besides mostly weaker economic data, the U.S. Department of Agriculture this
week said 10.9 million acres of cotton were planted, more than the 10.51
million listed in a planting-intentions report in March and up 19% from 2009
plantings of 9.15 million. That portends a larger U.S. supply this year.

"It's been one thing after another," Stevens said. "Everything has been a
shock to cotton."

For the week, the October futures lost 4.3%.

The recent soft economic data, coupled with weakness in outside markets such
as equities, left speculators reluctant to buy and perhaps even sell to exit
positions lately, said Peter Egli, director of risk management at Plexus Cotton
Ltd. in Phoenix. Meanwhile, he said, mills and cotton merchants may not be more
willing buyers until cotton falls below 75 cents.

Still, benchmark cotton did hold above a key technical support area, Stevens
pointed out. Thursday's 75.17-cent three-week low stopped just shy of the
200-day moving average of 74.97. Also, a trendline through the February and
June lows currently passes through the area around 75.40, the session low.

The nearby July futures managed a 0.42-cent gain to 81.64 cents. Analysts,
however, tended to downplay any significance to that, since volume and open
positions are minute and the contract is in its delivery period. The limited
activity is the taking and making of deliveries, with no active trading
occurring, Egli said.

Analytical company Informa Economics projected the next U.S. cotton crop at
18.644 million bales, Chicago-based traders said. The U.S. Department of
Agriculture makes its first estimate at the end of next week.

ICE daily cotton stocks decreased by 4,410 500-pound bales Thursday to
349,801 bales, with 814 bales awaiting review, according to exchange data.

ICE cotton open interest--the number of active positions left at the end of
the session--decreased by 1,520 positions Thursday to total 162,668.

Electronic volume as of 2:30 p.m. EDT (1830 GMT) Friday was estimated at
11,727 lots. In floor options trading, there were approximately 2,576 calls and
1,392 puts, according to exchange data.

Close Change Range
July 81.64c up 0.42c 81.64c-82.87c
December 75.53c dn 0.92c 75.40c-76.87c

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