DJ ICE Cotton Review: ICE Cotton Consolidates Lower; Eyes Demand

DJ ICE Cotton Review: ICE Cotton Consolidates Lower; Eyes Demand

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NEW YORK (Dow Jones)--Profit-taking pushed ICE Futures U.S. lower in
consolidation Wednesday after prices rallied for more than two weeks.

Most-active May cotton settled down 61 points, or 0.77%, at 79.16 cents a
pound.

ICE cotton prices rose 16.9% from Feb. 8-23. Prices rallied after the market
reached levels low enough to attract mill demand. Then strong demand outlooks
sparked buying as speculative traders scrambled to get into bullish positions
and commercial traders rushed to get out of bearish ones.

Speculative traders have no use for the underlying commodity, while
commercial traders hedge in the futures market in relation to physical cotton.

Cotton futures paused Wednesday following the strong rally as traders sold at
relatively high levels.

"After [cotton's] big run-up, we are going to get some consolidation," said
Sterling Smith, market analyst at Country Hedging in St. Paul, Minn.

Smith said May cotton is likely to hold support at the 78.50 level.

Analysts said traders will look to Thursday's weekly export sales data for
cues on demand. Mills may have put off buying at relatively high levels, a
bearish cue for demand. Analysts noted that in the reporting timeframe, China
was on holiday. China is the top cotton importer and the major destination for
U.S. cotton. The U.S. is the world's top cotton exporter. The data is scheduled
to be released at 8:30 a.m. EST.

Cotton faces a challenge in surpassing recent highs, analysts said.

"The 80-cent mark has proven to be stout resistance for the May contract,"
said John Flanagan, president of Flanagan Trading Corp. in Fuquay-Varina, N.C.

The May contract hit a high on 80.10 on Feb. 23, but settled at 79.77.

Cotton rallied in February following the release of bullish government crop
production and supply and demand outlooks. Most recent U.S. Department of
Agriculture data anticipated world cotton production would fall 12.4% short of
demand in the August-July crop year, while adding another 9% to outlooks for
U.S. cotton exports. The change whittled estimates for available cotton stocks
by 23.25% in the U.S.

ICE daily cotton stocks increased by 5,396 500-pound bales Tuesday to total
530,449 bales with 52,515 bales awaiting review, according to exchange data.

ICE cotton open interest--the number of active positions left at the end of
the session--increased by 2,041 positions Tuesday to total 167,690, according
to the exchange.

Volume was estimated 13,136 lots. In options, approximately 2,945 calls and
8,586 puts traded, according to exchange data.

Close Change Range
Mar 79.37 -63 pts 78.42-79.91
May 79.16 -61 pts 78.54-79.54
Dec 73.31 -44 pts 73.02-73.75

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