DJ ICE Cotton Review: Prices Down; Traders See Large US Crop Data

DJ ICE Cotton Review: Prices Down; Traders See Large US Crop Data

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NEW YORK (Dow Jones)--December cotton prices skidded lower Thursday as
traders sold in anticipation of bountiful U.S. crop estimates from the
government.

The most actively traded December contract ended 0.57 cent, or 0.8%, lower at
73.99 cents a pound on ICE Futures U.S. Nearby cotton for July delivery settled
0.86 cent, or 1%, lower at 81.85. Thursday was the last trading day for the
July contract.

December cotton futures, which represent the U.S. crop that is currently
developing in fields across the South, has lost nearly 3% since June 30. On the
same day, the U.S. Department of Agriculture raised by 15% its estimate of
acres planted to cotton. Paired with a stellar crop development--65% was rated
in good-to-excellent condition in the week ended July 4--an abundant harvest is
on the horizon.

Traders are looking ahead to the U.S. Department of Agriculture's June
supply-and-demand report scheduled for release at 8:30 a.m. EDT Friday.

Analysts surveyed by Dow Jones Newswires expected the USDA to raise its
projection for 2010 cotton production to be harvested this autumn to 17.41
million bales from the 16.70 million anticipated last month. The USDA has since
revised its estimate of acres planted to cotton upward by 15%.

In addition to a heavy fundamental picture, speculative fund traders have
been selling cotton on cues from technical charts.

The December contract hit a four-month intraday low on July 7, and could fall
to 72 cents if it takes out the low of 73.55 cents, said Tom Mikulski, a senior
market strategist at Lind-Waldock in Chicago.

Aside from pressure from expectations for ample supply, economic growth and
the demand that accompany it are in question. The U.S. economy shed jobs in
June for the first time this year, and the unemployment rate remained high,
while consumer confidence dropped sharply.

Weekly U.S. cotton export sales data will also be released Friday at 8:30
a.m. EDT. The release was delayed by the observance of the Independence Day
holiday July 5.

ICE daily cotton stocks decreased by 17,489 500-pound bales Wednesday to
total 299,028 with 15,965 decertification orders, according to exchange data.

ICE cotton open interest--the number of active positions left at the end of
the session--decreased by 345 positions Wednesday to total 159,179, according
to the exchange.

Volume up to 2:30 p.m. EDT was estimated at 13,737 lots. In options,
approximately 4,603 calls and 2,186 puts traded on the floor, according to
exchange data.

Close Change Range
Jly 81.85 -0.86 81.50-83.63
Oct 77.29 -0.87 77.07-78.30
Dec 73.99 -0.57 73.60-75.20

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