DJ ICE Cotton Review: Slides Behind CBOT Grains Losses

DJ ICE Cotton Review: Slides Behind CBOT Grains Losses

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NEW YORK (Dow Jones)--Weaker Chicago Board of Trade grains pulled ICE Futures
U.S. cotton to seven-session lows Thursday ahead of next week's planted acreage
estimates.

Nearby May cotton settled down 123 points, or 1.5%, at 80.18 a pound, off of
the 80.11 low.

Sales by speculators pressured cotton to the lower end of its recent range,
in synch with competing crops, said Jack Scoville, vice president at Price
Futures Group in Chicago.

Cotton is looking to those corn, soy and wheat prices ahead of the March 31
prospective plantings report from the U.S. Department of Agriculture.

In an outlook in February, the USDA pegged 2010 acreage at 10.5 million
acres, up 15% from last year, as higher prices since mid-2009 are likely to
encourage more plantings. The next season's cotton supplies are expected to be
ample, with the USDA projecting 16 million bales if weather is favorable. That
crop, which will be harvested in the fall, is reflected in the December
contract.

Cotton prices have recently traded in a range of 80-84.60 after the market
hit two-year highs March 1. The May contract peaked at the top end of that
range. Futures touched that point amid USDA outlooks that world cotton demand
would outpace supply by 13% in the 2009-10 crop year, which ends July 31.

But now the cotton market lacks fresh bullish fundamentals to push prices
higher, said Tom Mikulski, senior market strategist at Lind-Waldock in Chicago.

Cotton sales data reported Thursday did little to support the market. Prices
have risen too far to attract buying from textile mills, analysts said.

Net U.S. cotton sales sharply decreased in the week to March 18 to 95,400
running bales, from 277,900 bales the week before, according to the USDA.
However, exports of U.S. cotton increased to 308,700 running bales, from
300,100 the previous week.

The weak close leaves the market open to more technical losses, said Mike
Stevens, an independent cotton analyst and broker based in Mandeville, La.

"Violation of 80.50 [basis May] opens up a plethora of downside targets
beginning right here, but most notably around 78.20 and 76.20," Stevens said.

ICE daily cotton stocks increased by 11,942 500-pound bales Wednesday to
total 772,800 bales, with 28,943 bales awaiting review and 2,208
decertification orders, according to exchange data.

ICE cotton open interest--the number of active positions left at the end of
the session--decreased by 1,643 positions Wednesday to total 188,134, according
to the exchange.

Volume for the session totaled 16,247 lots, according to exchange data. In
floor-traded options, 3,446 calls and 4,128 puts traded.

Close Change Range
May 80.18 -123 pts 80.11-81.94
Jly 81.27 - 99 pts 81.17-82.80
Dec 74.98 + 41 pts 74.40-75.00

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