Not much to add to remarks in last nightΆs closing comments. Repeating for those who missed them, for nearly two months cotton futures have been the shining star among crops, steadily rising while other crops trended lower. This week it was role reversal, where cotton futures continued to erode further even on days when the other crops were rebounding.

Export sales for the week were quite good, up 44% from the previous week and up 53% from the 4-week average. But sales year-to-date are still slightly behind where they should be by now based on the 5-year average of sales year-to-date versus final sales for the marketing year. But this “gap” doesnΆt yet threaten USDAΆs export forecast because there have been two of the past five years where the gap was as big or even wider than the current lag and exports still reached USDAΆs forecast by the end of the marketing year.

As for planting progress, this weekΆs report showed the crop 8% planted vs. 13% a year ago and the 5-year average of 10%. There was even some speculation that failed winter wheat in the southern Plains may end up in cotton if the parched soils can finally get enough rain relief to make it worth planting cotton. But thatΆs a big if.

There has been considerable damage on the charts and the long-term uptrend line has been violated. ThatΆs why catch-up sales are still advised