Well, we ended the week with yet another lower close; the 11th straight. IΆm not sure if thatΆs a record, but it has to be close for consecutive losses in cotton. Growing trade conviction that USDA is going to hike yields and its production estimate in next FridayΆs November crop report has evaporated buyer interest in cotton and that means even low volume days are mostly lower.

Technical damage has been severe. Closing below key support at 78 in the December contract Tuesday opened up additional downside risk to 2012 spring and fall lows in the 68-69 area. And that triggered mid-week advice to add to sales described above.

Sales year-to-date remain about 400,000 bales behind where history says they should be by now to sustain USDAΆs current export forecast. That raises high risk USDA will cut its export forecast in the Nov. 8th WASDE update in addition to hiking the production estimate.

WeΆre not advising any new crop sales yet. We expect 2014 acreage to be down and while ChinaΆs reserve policy is still a major wild card, China was the dominant buyer in this weekΆs export sales report, booking another 612,300 bales of U.S. cotton.