Chart action is still looking positive. December futures are about to test the downtrend line as shown below; a close over last weekΆs high at 86.50 would do it convincingly and set up a technical case for December to test the March highs just over 89:

This weekΆs planting progress report showed 88% of the crop now planted, up from 82% last week and just 4 points behind the 5-year average. WeΆd mention, however, that last week the gap with “normal” planting progress was just ONE percentage point.

Cotton “squaring” stands at 6%, down from the 5-year average of 11% by this date and last yearΆs figure of 18%. USDA commenced with weekly crop condition ratings in cotton with this afternoonΆs report and it shows 42% of the crop rated good to excellent; down 9 points from last yearΆs figure. The portion of the crop rated poor to very poor is 21%, up significantly from last yearΆs 13% in that category.

Catch-up sales are still advised, to take advantage of the sharp rebound of the past several trading sessions. We see little potential beyond 89 cents, fundamentally and will advise adding to sales if we hit that level.