MondayΆs weekly crop condition and ratings report showed 53% rated good to excellent, giving up the 2 pts it gained a week ago. But itΆs still 3 pts higher than the 10-year avg of 50%. USDA says 70% of the crop is squaring with about 24% setting pods, both figures right at the 10-year averages.

The technical picture is EXTREMELY critical. The monthly chart of CME cotton. It shows this break is now knocking at the floor of lows we havenΆt seen since 2013 in the 68 area. If spot cotton closes decisively below 68, every chartist in the world will make a case that spot cotton now has downside risk to 50 cents and even that is pretty flimsy technical support.

If 50 canΆt hold, the 2008 lows at 40 would be at risk. ItΆs very unlikely cotton could go much below 50, however, because the government loan rate will come into play as the market of choice for producers.