Considering the good rains in the Southern Plains earlier this month, this weekΆs crop ratings didnΆt improve all that much. The portion of the crop rated “good” to “excellent” rose just two points, to 44%, while the portion rated “poor” to “very poor” fell only 2 points, to 24%. A year ago, 47% was rated good-to-excellent and just 18% poor-to-very poor. Then again, USDA is projected average U.S. yield at 831 lbs./acre, down about 6% from last yearΆs 887 lb. average, which tells traders slightly lower crop ratings are already “in the market” via USDAΆs yield forecast.

At the global level, the International Cotton Advisory Committee (ICAC) came out today with new supply/demand forecasts this week and they put global ending stocks at 7% over last year, while USDA has global cotton ending stocks at 10.2% over last year. But either way, the stocks still represent a 10-mo. supply if you count ChinaΆs share; nearly a 4-mo. supply even if you donΆt. With anything beyond a 3-mo. supply considered an “adequate buffer” against 2014 crop problems, price gains from current levels will be tough to come by unless crop ratings begin to fall “fast and furious”.