We havenΆt spotted any wire service trade estimates for ThursdayΆs September crop report and WASDE update from USDA, but we have spotted others looking for the U.S. crop to come in between 17.0 million bales and 17.5 million vs. USDAΆs August crop estimate of 17.5 million.

There are a few, myself included, who believe the crop will be raised, not lowered, and that will be a bearish surprise since weΆre in the minority.

Those who see crop size more likely to go down if not unchanged are looking at USDA to drop acres harvested, relative to planted. The August WASDE estimate is that acres harvested will total over 90% of acres planted, sharply above the past two years when drought reduced acres harvested to only 64% in 2011, 76% in 2012 and 72% in 2013. Granted, that makes 90% look high.

But weather has proven vastly better this season than in the previous 4 years and percent harvested in the mid-90s is not uncommon at all in “normal” weather years. As recently as 2010 producers harvested over 97% of acres planted.

My view is that USDA will hold harvested acreage unchanged and likely raise average cotton yield since itΆs 1 lb. per acre lower than last yearΆs 821 lbs per acre and yet crop condition ratings have been consistently well in excess of last yearΆs. TodayΆs update put the portion of the crop rated good to excellent at 49% when a year ago it was 45%. The portion rated poor to very poor is 17% vs a year ago when it was 21%.

I would add however, that both figures are not quite as good as a week ago. Last week 50% was rated good to excellent (1 pt better than todayΆs figure) and 16% was rated poor to very poor (1 pt lower than todayΆs figure).