Doane Cotton Close: Futures Rally from FridayΆs Sell Off

Doane Cotton Close: Futures Rally from FridayΆs Sell Off

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Το περιεχόμενο του άρθρου δεν είναι διαθέσιμο στη γλώσσα που έχετε επιλέξει και ως εκ τούτου το εμφανίζουμε στην αυθεντική του εκδοχή. Μπορείτε να χρησιμοποιήσετε την υπηρεσία Google Translate για να το μεταφράσετε.

REPEATING ADVICE ALERT FROM FRIDAY: Futures and Options users should price another 10% of 2014-crop cotton, taking you to 20% priced.

The rally in old crop suddenly ran out of steam Thursday and triggered more selling Friday. But cotton futures rebounded today, based on reports out of China that Beijing had lowered the acceptable quality standards for buying cotton from its farmers for already mountainous government reserves, even though officials confirmed LAST week that this policy was going to change for 2014 in a shift to a more market-oriented domestic pricing policy and paying farmers deficiency payments if Chinese domestic prices came in below yet-to-be announced “target” prices.

Also supporting cotton today were forecasts that Chinese cotton area would likely decline 8-9% in 2014, opening up potential for more imported cotton.

HOWEVER, there was also some significantly BEARISH news today in my view: Word that a preliminary “poll” of 2014 planting intentions at this weekΆs Beltwide Cotton Conference will show producers planting to boost cotton acreage in 2014 (by 8%); the first increase in three years. Reason: Tumbling corn and soybean prices while cotton prices are higher than a year ago.

I have been anticipating cotton acreage would DECLINE another 200,000 acres or so until this poll came out. But it was out early this morning on the wire services and still new crop cotton futures actually closed with a small gain. That tells me traders put more weight on the news from China today than the news about U.S. planting intentions. Nonetheless, I urge catch-up sales if not at the recommended levels below.

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