The big news of the day was USDAΆs WASDE update for April at 11 a.m. There were no big surprises in the U.S. or global stocks, but longtime cotton market expert Herman Kohlmeyer reports some traders were taken aback by USDAΆs 1 million bale increase in anticipated imports by China, but no increase in the U.S. export forecast. Instead, USDA hiked AustraliaΆs expected exports by 700,000 bales and IndiaΆs by 500,000.

Here are the details of todayΆs WASDE:
U.S. BALANCE SHEET CHANGES: Market reaction neutral to mixed. Prior to release, trade estimates of U.S. ending stocks averaged 2.5 million bales, down 300,000 from March and ranging from 2.4 million to 2.8 million. USDAΆs actual figure came in as expected at 2.5 million bales. Exports were left unchanged but the crop estimate was reduced by 320,000 bales, largely expected following last monthΆs ginnings report. The “residual” factor was dropped by 20,000 bales, however, for a net decrease in ending stocks of 300,000. USDAΆs forecast avg farm price range was raised by 1 cent per lb. on each end, to 76-79 from 75-78 in March.

GLOBAL BALANCE SHEET CHANGES: Globally, USDA raised ending stocks slightly, to 96.92 million bales from 96.75 million in March. There were only modest adjustments across each line item; beginning stocks were raised by 499,000 bales, but production was lowered by 60,000 and global usage raised by 240,000 for a net increase in ending stocks of 170,000 or less than 2/10 of 1 percent. Among major importing countries, ending stocks rose 1.1 million bales, with China accounting for 1 million. Among exporting countries, ending stocks declined 680,000, primarily among southern hemisphere producing countries (S. America, Africa, Australia).