An unusually quiet, low volume trading day. Weekend rains in Texas fell short of forecasts in both coverage and amounts. There are a little better odds of some rain in the next week or so, but thatΆs not saying much. There is a rising amount of certificated stocks in deliverable locations, eroding tight stocks and a possible “squeeze on shorts” as we head into May delivery as something market bulls can tout.

China is a wildcard yet. WeΆre seeing estimates of the 2014 crop in planted acreage ranging from 10% to 22%. We lean towards the smaller cut now that we know theyΆve set their target price for potential deficiency payments at twice the price of December cotton futures. However, there are some murmurs now that the new policy might not require planting of cotton to qualify for these payments under some sort of “allotment” or “base acreage” formula tied to prior yearsΆ acreage.

But we canΆt get confirmation on that from official sources. If we find it to be true, there is then the possibility the cut in cotton acreage could be at the deeper levels because Chinese officials said today theyΆre are going to renew focus on becoming “self sufficient” in major grains production.

NASS put out weekly crop progress reports this afternoon. Cotton planting has hit 9%, down from the 5-year average of 12% and 1 pt. behind a year ago at 9%. ThereΆs a lot of variation among key states, however. Louisiana is only 1% planted vs. 17% on average, while California is 90% planted vs. 45% on average and AZ is 55% planted vs. 42% on average.