So much for yesterdayΆs “encouraging” close. Today was a brutal day for market bulls as the May contract got hammered heading into expiration. Especially hurt were speculators long the May and short the July on ideas that longs taking delivery might be able to squeeze the shorts due to shortages of deliverable stocks. That turned out to be old news as certified stocks are 50% higher than they were when March was expiring and the advantage actually went to those MAKING delivery against shorts.

Delayed planting remains a serious threat because itΆs not only still bone dry in much of Texas cotton country but unseasonable COLD as well. But the charts look awful after today. Still significant downside risk from a technical perspective.

The only change in advice is that I have pared back catch-up sales advice as explained below. Instead, IΆm looking for a signal for those who ARE that aggressively sold to take some profits and “lighten” up to 30%. But IΆll wait for the market to give the signal. Those who try to “pick” market bottoms usually regret it. Better to wait for chart action that acts like a bottom.