The volatliity continues! Big gains are matched by strong gains in the other “soft” commodities recently; i.e. sugar, coffee and cocoa. Herman Kohlmeyer of MJ Nugent & Co. admits itΆs just speculation on his part, but he thinks thereΆs some shifting of fund money going on. Like me, he sees nothing else in global news or government reports that would explain todayΆs sudden surge.

Excellent and v-e-r-y welcome rains in Texas and SW OK the past week have likely improved conditions markedly. WeΆll find out Monday in the weekly crop condition report from USDAΆs NASS.

In todayΆs weekly export sales report, we notice export sales YTD have fallen behind where they need to be to sustain USDAΆs current forecast for the 2012/13 marketing year that ends this month. Aug. 1. Sagging Chinese imports in June are a significant factor, adding to warnings that country may alter its domestic price support program to direct farmer subsidies instead of socking domestic cotton into reserve.