By BY LOGAN G. CARVER
AVALANCHE-JOURNAL

This yearΆs historic drought wonΆt just hurt cotton producers. The pinch has others aching in what could become the worst crop year on record.

Hail-outs and bad weather have given the region bad years, but this is the first time dryland cotton has suffered nearly 100 percent failure.

Irrigated acres havenΆt fared much better because pivots canΆt keep up with the demand in this brutally hot and dry growing season.

Bad crops have a ripple effect.

Gin owners have plans to cut shifts, warehouse operators think theyΆll close plants and those who run seed oil presses have considered staffing changes. All of them pray for winter moisture, so next year doesnΆt bring a repeat.

“I canΆt even begin to explain to you how far this rippleΆs going to go,” said Debra Wilson, manager at Posey Gin near Slaton. “And not just this year. ItΆs going to follow us into years beyond.”

Wilson said she expects production will be down 60 to 65 percent from last yearΆs crop.

Posey normally gins 24/7 from mid-October through December, but Wilson said she wonΆt run a night crew, meaning half of the people normally working at the gin during the fall will search for employment elsewhere.

Compounding the issue, this yearΆs gin season likely will run much shorter than the average two to three months, Wilson said.

“I think this year weΆre going to be looking at six weeks — and thatΆs with one crew,” she said. “And thatΆs bad.”

Producers have insurance covering crop failures, but gins have to operate make money, Wilson said.

Bad seasons mean lost revenue and compulsory cost-cutting.

Wilson said she has seen some disastrous years, but none as bad as this.

She said most gins can withstand one bad year. Beyond that, things get iffy.

“One year, we can survive it; two years, itΆs gonna get tough,” Wilson said. “After that itΆs gonna start eliminating a lot of people, and that goes from the producer all the way up.”

Buzz Cooper, manager of Texas Star Co-op, agreed.

He said area gins will have to make cuts this year.

And if the region doesnΆt get significant winter moisture, the problem grows exponentially.

The Texas Star Co-op normally runs two gins, but this year will operate only the Wilson plant, Cooper said.

He expects to produce about 25 to 30 percent of the roughly 95,000 bales ginned annually.

Because of the heat, producers who made a crop are almost ready to start stripping, Cooper said.

Some area farmers, particularly those to the north, have sprayed defoliant and could begin harvesting as early as next week.

Cooper expects heΆll start ginning close to a month early but, like Wilson, said he likely will run only one crew per day.

“We donΆt know if we can justify a night crew just yet,” Cooper said. “If we run two crews, we could gin our whole gin run in 30 days.”

But a monthlong season is unlikely, Cooper said. HeΆll probably operate into November.

“We just tighten our belt and go on,” Cooper said. “EverybodyΆs gonna be alright this time at the gin level, but you give us two years like this, and itΆs gonna get pretty serious, it really is.”

A truncated gin season bodes ill for other operations like oil mills, whose owners rely on cottonseed from gins to turn a profit.

Ronnie Gilbert at PYCO Industries said recent bountiful crops provided enough carryover seed, when combined with this yearΆs crop, to keep them busy through the end of next summer.

But this yearΆs lagging production and another year of want if the region doesnΆt get rain, then Gilbert says heΆll dip to about 50 percent and likely would have to adjust staff accordingly.

“The second year is gonna be really detrimental if this continues on,” Gilbert said.

The lack of cotton will hit warehouses hard.

Farmers Cooperative Compress will close four of its 10 plants on Sept. 1, three in Lubbock and one in Plainview, said Albert Jimenez, shipping clerk at the warehouse co-op.

The move will put about 36 people out of work.

“ItΆs going to be a pretty big cut that weΆre gonna have,” Jimenez said. “This year itΆs going to affect us quite a bit financially.”

Warehouses make money from storing and shipping cotton.

Normally the co-op stores roughly three million bales in its 10 plants, but this year, Jimenez estimates theyΆll receive only 939,000 bales.

He thinks they will begin shipping the cotton as soon as they receive it, meaning lost revenue.

“The more cotton that we have here in storage, the more money we make; but 939,000 bales is not very much,” Jimenez said. “It will affect us quite a bit because we donΆt have enough volume.”