Keith Brown DTN Contributing Cotton Analyst    

Taking its cue from outside markets and other news, cotton finished demonstratively lower, although it did pare earlier losses. At one time during the Monday morning session, cotton flirted with limit-down (500 points) as some traders took Biden's comments of defending Taiwan with U.S. troops as antagonistically bearish.    

Of course cotton, as well as most markets, are awaiting the Federal Reserve's interest rate announcement this Wednesday. Allegedly, a three-quarter point hike has been discounted, but a full point jump would likely send the U.S. Dollar higher and the Dow lower. To that end, "all things commodities" would likely spill as well.    

Energy prices were higher Monday as the lifting of certain Chinese COVID lockdowns suggested a better demand outlook. For several weeks China has imposed severe shut-downs, including the mega-city of Chengdu, with its population of nearly 21 million people.    

Monday morning a private climate tracking service issued an extended summary of the U.S. weather situation. It describes it as "being mostly good for this time of year". Specifically, the report indicated that the Midwest, Southern Plains, Delta and the Southeast should expect mainly dry and clear conditions. With national harvest just beginning to unfold in many states, such conditions should result in a rapid gathering of agricultural crops, and thus may allow those markets to post early seasonal bottoms. Such would be true for cotton.    

For Monday, December closed at 96.04 cents, down 3.25 cents, March 23 finished at 93.05 cents, minus 3.10 cents, and July 23 settled at 88.14 cents, 2.84 cents lower. Monday's estimated volume was 47,284 contracts.    

Keith Brown can be reached at commodityconsults@gmail.com 

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