Keith Brown DTN Contributing Cotton Analyst    

The cotton market was sharply lower Monday as traders feared possible export reprisals from China over the downing of their surveillance balloon. The controversial balloon crisscrossed the U.S. over the weekend, but was finally shot down off the U.S. east coast. China has lodged a nasty protest to U.S. authorities.    

This Thursday USDA will issue its February crop report, with the possibility of making certain adjustments. For that report, traders are looking for U.S. 2022/23 production to be at 14.56 million bales. This would be less than last month when tabulators pegged the crop at 14.68 million bales. Ending stocks are expected to come in at 4.08 million bales, down from 4.20 million in January. While world ending stocks are expected to come in at 90.06 million bales, slightly up from 89.93 million reported in January.    

The U.S. dollar rose to a three-week high against the euro Monday, as Friday's massive jobs report raised the likelihood of the Federal Reserve keeping on with its inflation-fighting interest rate hikes for longer. On Friday, data showed U.S. job growth accelerated sharply in January while the unemployment rate hit more than a 53-1/2-year low of 3.4%.    

Today, March 23 finished at 83.27 cents, minus 2.16, July settled at 88.84, down 1.87, and December 23 ended at 83.73, 1.42 lower. Monday's estimated volume was 55,549, the largest since Nov. 15, 2022.    

Keith Brown can be reached at commodityconsults@gmail.com 

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