Keith Brown DTN Contributing Cotton Analyst
The cotton market concluded its abbreviated, but overall bullish week on a small down note. A weaker weekly sales number, along with a hint of rain for West Texas in the revised Six- to 10-day forecast, pulled the market lower.
From Thursday's weekly export-sales data we note that cumulative sales for 2021-22 have reached 103% of the USDA's forecast for the marketing year versus a five-year average of 99% for this time of year.
The market is closed Friday for the observance of Good Friday, but will resume trading Sunday night. Understand that Good Friday is a religious holiday and not a federal holiday, thus the CFTC will still release its commitments of traders report Friday afternoon.
May cotton will enter its delivery Monday week, April 25. That means all participants wishing to avoid the perils of delivery would need to offset their spot positions by the close of Friday week.
Certainly, a bullish driver this week was the news that India will allow duty-free imports of cotton until Sept. 30. Local prices have reached record high levels because of a shortfall in 2022 production. India could import around 2.5 million kilo bales, (170 kg), or the equivalent of roughly 2.0 million U.S. (480-pound) bales.
For the week, spot May cotton is up 9.57 cents, for the month, up 6.29 cents, and for the year it is 31.50 cents higher.
Today, May cotton settled at 141.98 cents, down 0.79 cent, July closed at 140.71 cents, down 0.80 cent and December finished at 122.48 cents, 0.30 cent higher; estimated volume was 50,167 contracts.
Keith Brown can be reached at firstname.lastname@example.org