Keith Brown DTN Contributing Cotton Analyst
Although the market was lower Tuesday, it was able to pare its losses to maintain its sideways pattern. It was interesting that cotton traded down all day even in the face of higher grains and energies, plus a lower U.S. dollar. To that end, the market has been consolidating its recent gains after posting its higher trade of 119.59 cents made on Aug. 16. Traders are wanting to see confirmation of either new demand or further crop losses.
Weather episodes have been pouring out rain across Texas, and with now those rains heading for the U.S. Delta, and perhaps into the Southeast. Currently, the nation's cotton crop is about 13% open, with Mississippi at 32% open and Louisiana 38%. Heavy rains will put that crop "to the sword," so to speak, further diminishing the total size of 2022 production.
Traders are looking towards Thursday's weekly export sales. Last week sales were 49,500 bales, a miserable amount by any measure.
The U.S. dollar posted a new contract high Tuesday. Traders will be keying on Fed Chairman Powell's speech on Friday as the Federal Reserve's economic symposium winds up. Most analysts are expecting a hawkish tone from the Chairman.
Crude oil prices soared more than $3 a barrel on Tuesday after Saudi Arabia floated the idea of OPEC+ output cuts to support prices and with the prospect of a drop in U.S. crude inventories. A Saudi energy minister indicated that the huge disconnect between the "futures" and the physical markets had become "too great."
For Tuesday, December closed at 112.23 cents, down 1.91 cents, March 2023 finished at 109.07 cents, down 2.17 cents and July 2023 settled at 101.75 cents, 1.90 cents lower; estimated volume was 19,202 contracts.
Keith Brown can be reached at email@example.com
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