Keith Brown DTN Contributing Cotton Analyst    

The cotton market has "rung the bell" on a 6-cent move for the last two days. The market's oversold condition, along with a weaker U.S. dollar and a stronger Dow helped to rally prices. Of course, much of the activity is due to end-of-the-month and end-of-the-quarter price squaring.    

This Thursday, USDA will issue its weekly export-sales data. Last week, saw sales in excess of 300,000 bales, with Vietnam and China as the top two buyers. It has been suggested if and when China ever becomes the dominant buyer on the report, traders will assume it will be in full COVID-19 recovery.    

On Friday, USDA will release its 2023 prospective plantings data. The average trade guess is 11.0 million acres, with a range of 10.5 to 12.7 million. Last year the number was 13.8 million. The report will be out at High Noon.    

As a reminder, options on the May contract will expire on April 14.    

According to USDA, about 90% of China's cotton is grown in Xinjiang, while about 20% of the cotton used by the Chinese textile industry is imported. Thus, most Chinese products contain fiber that was produced in Xinjiang and are thus subject to the international ban set by the West a few years ago. Therefore, any weather adversity occurring during China's growing season could mean a larger uptick in imports needs.    

Tuesday, May 2023 finished at 82.52 cents, up 3.00 cents, July settled at 82.97 cents, up 2.98 cents and December 2023 ended at 83.28 cents, 2.53 cents higher; estimated volume was 42,600 contracts.    

Keith Brown can be reached at commodityconsults@gmail.com 

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