Keith Brown DTN Contributing Cotton Analyst
After ending limit up on Tuesday (4 cents higher), Wednesday's market traded most of the session limit down (5 cents lower). The drivers for such volatility revolved around the U.S. dollar and the Dow Jones. Thus Tuesday, based on the hopes of a Fed "pivot," that is a slowdown in hiking interest rates, the Dow was sharply higher, while the dollar took it on the proverbial "chin." However, Wednesday's action was somewhat contrary in that Fed officials eschewed the notion of a "pivot." The result was a higher dollar and a weaker Dow. Thus, cotton finished down 4.97 cents.
OPEC+ agreed to impose deep output cuts, hoping to initiate a recovery in oil prices despite U.S. pressure to pump more. Crude prices have fallen to roughly $80 a barrel from more than $120 in early June amid growing fears about the prospect of a global economic recession.
Traders also have great angst with Thursday's weekly export sales. Lately, that data has been hugely negative. Yet, given the fact China is on a week-long holiday, probably next week's report will also be "uninspiring" as well.
Next week, USDA will publish its latest supply-demand updates via the October crop report. Traders may be expecting another reduction to the crop, but also cuts to the exports category. Lately, USDA's data has been very controversial, as government tabulators cut the crop nearly three million bales in August, only to add roughly 1.20 million back to the total. The results have been dramatic price swings.
Weather-wise, both the six- to 10-day and the eight- to 14-day outlook calls indicate above-normal rainfall for West Texas, while the Southeast and the Delta tend to be warm and dry. This Friday, the Labor Department will report its monthly jobs data. Expectations call for some 250,000 jobs created in September. A number higher or lower, may or may not, alter the Federal Reserve's plan to hike interest rates.
For Wednesday, December closed at 83.23 cents, down 4.97 cents, March 2023 finished at 81.74 cents, down 4.45 cents and July 2023 settled at 79.02 cents, 4.00 cents lower; estimated volume was 53,462 contracts.
Keith Brown can be reached at commodityconsults@gmail.com
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