Analysts projected U.S. production at 15.7 million bales and carryout at 4.7 million bales. U.S. export commitments reached 106% of the 2013-14 estimate and 28% of the 2014-15 projection.

Cotton futures closed with triple-digit losses in 2014-15 contracts Thursday, falling to yet another new contract low settlement in benchmark December and finishing in the red for the eighth session in a row.

December closed down 112 points to 68.55 cents, just off the low of its 129-point range from up 12 points at 69.79 to down 117 points at 68.50 cents, only 25 points above its contract low. It has closed higher only once in the last 12 sessions.

Volume rose to an estimated 21,000 lots from 14,257 lots the previous session when spreads totaled 2,993 lots or 21%. Options volume totaled 6,707 calls and 9,125 puts.

Cotton analysts estimated U.S. crop prospects at an average of 15.7 million bales, according to a survey by The Wall Street Journal, up from 15 million bales foreseen by USDA in June and 12.91 million bales harvested in 2013-14.

Estimates ranged from 15 million to 16.4 million bales. A bigger crop forecast has been expected after USDA last month reported an all-cotton planted area of 11.369 million acres, up 9.2% from last year.

The USDA will release its updated supply-demand estimates at 11 a.m. CDT on Friday.

Analysts estimated exports at 9.9 million bales, against 9.7 million forecast by USDA and 10.5 million projected for 2013-14. Survey estimates ranged from 9.7 million to 10.4 million bales.

The survey didnΆt compile an estimate of domestic mill use. While exports last month were projected to decline 8% from this season, domestic mill use was expected to rise about 3% to 3.7 million bales.

Analysts pegged ending stocks at 4.7 million bales within a range from 3.6 million to 5.2 million bales, against USDAΆs June forecast of 4.3 million and 2.7 million estimated for 2013-14.

Some analysts also expect USDA to raise its old-crop export estimate slightly and cut its carryout estimate for 2013-14 to 2.6 million bales.

Meanwhile, net U.S. all-cotton export sales for shipment this season of 68,100 running bales during the week ended July 3, up from the prior weekΆs 41,500 bales, boosted 2013-14 commitments to 10.782 million RB.

Commitments reached about 106% of the USDA estimate, compared with about 107% of final shipments at the corresponding point last season.
Shipments slipped to 141,200 running bales from 175,100 bales the prior week, hiking exports for the season to 9.8 million RB, about 96% of the estimate. Shipments a year ago also were about 96% of final exports.

To achieve the estimate, shipments need to average roughly 128,100 running bales a week.

New-crop sales jumped to 203,400 running bales from 59,800 bales the week before to bring 2014-15 commitments to 2.633 million RB, widening the lead over forward sales a year ago to 533,000 RB.

Commitments for next season were about 28% of the USDA projection. A year ago, forward sales were about 21% of the current 2013-14 estimate.

Futures open interest gained 1,157 lots Wednesday to 146,829, with OctoberΆs up 49 lots to 365, DecemberΆs up 164 lots to 118,565 and MarchΆs up 901 lots to 20,948.

Certificated stocks declined 11,670 bales to 397,614. There were 2,760 newly certified bales, 14,330 bales decertified and 14,314 bales awaiting review.
World values as measured by the Cotlook A Index dropped 45 points Thursday morning to 84.80 cents. The premium to WednesdayΆs price at which July expired narrowed 42 points to 9.83 cents.

Forward A Index values for 2014-15 dropped 50 points to 77.40 cents, widening the discount to the 2013-14 index by five points to 7.40 cents and narrowing the premium to WednesdayΆs December futures close by seven points to 7.73 cents.