All-cotton export commitments totaled 106% of USDAΆs latest estimate for 2015-16 and shipments 92%. U.S. share of world cotton trade projected to rebound in 2016-17 to 33.5%, highest in six seasons.
Cotton futures extended a winning streak to five sessions in a row Thursday, shrugging off declines in U.S. weekly export sales and shipments to finish on a new high close for the move in December.
December closed up 72 points to 73.87 cents, near the upper third of its 236-point range from down 84 points at 72.31 cents to up 152 points at 74.67 cents. It traded within the prior sessionΆs broad range and finished on its highest close since July 3, 2014.
March closed up 76 points to 73.54 cents, while nearby October gained 44 points to finish at a narrow discount to December at 73.82 cents.
Volume slipped to 33,668 lots from 65,821 lots the previous session when spreads accounted for 16,680 lots or 25%, EFS 150 lots and EFP 47 lots. Options volume totaled 13,432 calls and 12,189 puts.
U.S. all-cotton export sales for shipment this season of 56,300 running bales during the week ended July 7, down from 212,100 RB the previous week, brought 2015-16 commitments to 9.477 million RB.
Commitments — outstanding sales of 1.257 million RB plus shipments — totaled 9.477 million RB, 106% of USDAΆs latest upwardly revised export projection. A year ago, commitments were 104% of final 2014-15 shipments. Bookings trailed year-ago commitments by 1.834 million RB or by 16%.
The new USDA export estimate of 9.2 million statistical 480-pound bales is down 18% from last seasonΆs shipments.
All-cotton new-crop sales of 113,700 RB, down from 128,400 RB the prior week, boosted 2016-17 commitments to 2.11 million RB, up from 1.759 million RB in forward bookings a year ago.
New-crop commitments were 19% of USDAΆs also upwardly revised forecast for 2016-17, compared with year-ago forward bookings of 20% of the new 2015-16 export estimate.
All-cotton shipments of 156,900 RB, down from 315,200 RB the week before, raised the total for the season to 8.219 million RB, about 92% of the USDA estimate, compared with 94% of final 2014-15 exports at the corresponding point a year ago.
To achieve the USDA estimate, shipments during the remaining three weeks of the marketing year need to average roughly 234,900 RB.
Although USDA raised its estimate of 2015-16 exports by 200,000 bales this month on stronger-than-expected shipments through June, the total remains at the lowest since 2000-01 as the reduced 2015 crop pushed supplies to the smallest since 1984-85.
Consequently, the U.S. share of world trade is projected by USDA at 27%, down from 32% last season.
Contributing to the export rebound expected in 2016-17 are larger supplies based on increased U.S. production and the reduction in the projection of new-crop foreign output to the lowest since 2003-04.
With global trade expected only slightly higher in 2016-17, the U.S. export estimate of 11.5 million statistical bales would mean U.S. cottonΆs share would expand to 33.5%, the highest in six seasons.
Futures open interest grew 11,877 lots Wednesday to 221,774, with DecemberΆs up 9,324 lots to 180,293 and MarchΆs up 1,589 to 26,078. Cert stocks declined 1,582 bales to 130,071.
