U.S. all-cotton export commitments reached 37% of the USDA 2016-17 forecast and widened the lead over year-ago bookings to 1.437 million RB.
Cotton futures settled mixed Thursday, with benchmark December finishing slightly ahead and contracts beyond that lower.
December closed up 25 points to 68.04 cents, in the upper third of its 133-point range from down 72 points at 67.07 to up 61 points at 68.40 cents. It rallied from a seven-session overnight low to the high following higher-than-expected U.S. weekly export sales reported by USDA.
Nearby October gained 34 points to close at 67.75 cents, March dipped a point to 68.31 cents and December 2017 dropped 19 points to 67.61 cents.
Volume increased to an estimated 18,854 lots from 17,622 lots the previous session when spreads accounted for 5,890 lots or 33% and EFP for one lot. Options volume totaled 3,395 calls and 786 puts.
Net all-cotton export sales for shipment this season of 308,000 running bales during the week ended Aug. 18, up from 223,700 RB the prior week, boosted 2016-17 commitments to 4.153 million RB.
Commitments — outstanding sales of 3.63 million RB plus shipments — widened the lead over bookings a year ago to 1,437 million RB or to 53% and reached 37% of the USDA export forecast. A year ago, commitments were 30% of final 2015-16 shipments.
All-cotton shipments of 222,600 RB, up from 181,700 the prior week, brought the seasonΆs total to 522,100 RB, up 54% from 338,600 RB shipped through the corresponding period last season. Shipments were about 5% of the USDA estimate, compared with 4% of final 2015-16 exports a year ago.
Upland sales of 24,600 RB for shipment next season, up from 13,200 the week before, hiked 2017-18 commitments to 332,800 RB, up from year-ago forward bookings of 169,400 RB.
Despite lower world import demand foreseen for 2016-17, reduced supplies in a number of exporting countries provide an opportunity for the U.S. export growth forecast this season, USDA says.
World trade is projected at 34 million statistical bales, 2.6% below last season and the lowest since 2008-09. ChinaΆs imports are projected unchanged at 4.5 million bales, restrained partly by sales from its huge government-owned reserves.
But the worldΆs largest cotton consumer and third largest importer has been actively purchasing U.S. cotton in recent weeks and was the top buyer of both upland and Pima last week.
Import reductions are forecast for a number of countries, including Pakistan, Turkey and Indonesia. Partly offsetting those decreases, however, are increased imports projected for Vietnam and Bangladesh, the leading 2016-17 importers.
U.S. exports are expected to rise by more than 2 million statistical bales this season, projected to be mostly offset by a 1.6-million-bale decline forecast for India, the worldΆs largest cotton producer, which also has been buying U.S. cotton lately.
Futures open interest dipped 443 lots Wednesday to 227,913, with DecemberΆs down 989 lots to 156,687 and MarchΆs down 133 lots to 47,965. Certified stocks declined 11,028 bales to 51,263. A year ago, cert stocks were 80,881 bales.