Increase expected in U.S. weekly export sales for period in which prices plunged. Net domestic consumption of cotton projected to rise to 17.8 million bales this year from 17 million in 2012.

Cotton futures retreated to a new six-week low and settled near there with a modest loss Wednesday after an upside probe stalled shy of the prior-day high.

Benchmark December closed down 40 points to 83.75 cents, just off the low of its 123-point range from up 79 points at 84.94 to down 44 points at 83.71 cents. It closed below last weekΆs low at its lowest finish since July 17.

October settled down 49 points to 84.01 cents and March closed off 54 points to 82.82 cents, seven ticks off the low of its 114-point range.

Increased U.S. export sales are expected to be reported Thursday for the week ended Feb. 22. December futures during the reporting week plunged from 93.72 to 83.91 cents and ranged on a closing basis from 93.32 to 84.18 cents. The USDA report will be released at 7:30 a.m. CDT.

All-cotton export sales during the previous reporting week of 91,800 running bales, including 81,000 of upland, topped weak expectations.

Volume rose to an estimated 16,600 lots from 14,513 lots the previous session when spreads totaled 3,079 lots or 21%, EFP 55 lots and EFS 46 lots. Options volume totaled 3,542 calls and 1,450 puts.

Looking ahead, National Cotton Council economists expect net U.S. retail consumption of all fibers to increase to 46.9 million-bale-equivalents in 2013 from 44.8 million in calendar 2012.

At the market share it held last year, cottonΆs net domestic consumption is projected to rise to 17.8 million bales this year from 17 million, according to an outlook report presented at the councilΆs midyear board meeting last week.

This refers to both the amount of cotton spun in this country (mill use) and consumed through textile imports. CottonΆs share last year declined about 1.4% to 38%.

While itΆs important that the retail market continue to grow, cotton must be concerned with its share and the competition from manmade fibers. And its share of has declined the last few years.

In 2002, cottonΆs share was just over 43%. The higher prices of 2003 were met with some shifting from cotton to other fibers. As a result, cottonΆs share dipped.

But cottonΆs share climbed back to 43.1% in 2006, remained roughly unchanged in 2007 and reached 44% in 2008. Then it fell to just over 43% in 2009, to 42.6% in 2010 and 39.5% in 2011.

Futures open interest fell 2,015 lots Tuesday to 183,526, with DecemberΆs down 2,101 lots to 137,683 and MarchΆs down nine lots to 34,427.
Certificated stocks dropped 478 bales to 25,664, reflecting a newly certified bale and decertification of 479 bales. There were 5,025 bales awaiting review, the first in a long while.

World values as measured by the Cotlook A Index fell 55 points Wednesday morning to 89.90 cents. The premium to TuesdayΆs December futures settlement widened 20 points to 5.80 cents.