U.S. all-cotton export commitments totaled 81% of USDAΆs 2015-16 forecast and shipments 49%. U.S. premium in the Far East widened 12 ticks to 1.86 cents.
Cotton futures finished moderately lower Thursday ahead of a long Easter weekend, with spot May falling to a three-session low and posting the largest closing loss.
May closed down 67 points to 57.72 cents, just below the midpoint of its 98-point range from down eight points at 58.31 to down 106 points at 57.33 cents. It finished back below its nine-day moving average.
July settled down 52 points to 57.58 cents and December dipped 29 points to 57.35 cents. For the shortened week, the market gained 56 points in May, 52 points in July and 45 points in December.
Disappointing U.S. weekly export sales contributed to the dayΆs losses as traders looked ahead to next weekΆs prospective plantings report.
Volume increased to an estimated 23,445 lots from 19,540 lots the previous session when spreads accounted for 9,416 lots or 48%, EFS 1,000 lots and EFP 31 lots. Options volume totaled 2,897 calls and 1,734 puts.
Net all-cotton export sales for shipment this season of 92,900 running bales during the week ended March 17, down from 241,800 RB the previous week, brought 2015-16 commitments to 7.495 million RB.
The lag of commitments behind year-ago bookings widened by nearly 100,000 RB to 2.609 million RB or to 26%. Commitments totaled 81% of USDAΆs export estimate, compared with 93% of final shipments a year ago.
All-cotton shipments of 220,000 RB, up from 186,100 RB the prior week, boosted the seasonΆs total to 4.535 million RB, widening the gap behind year-ago exports by 81,000 RB to 1.117 million RB or to 20%.
Shipments were 49% of the USDA projection, compared with 52% of final 2014-15 exports at the corresponding point last season.
To achieve the USDA forecast, shipments need to average roughly 246,300 RB a week, while sales averaging approximately 90,500 RB would match the export projection.
Commitments for 2016-17 crossed the million-bale mark on sales of 52,100 RB, raising new-crop bookings to 1.047 million RB and widening the lead over cumulative forward sales a year ago to 145,000 RB.
On the competitive-pricing front, the average of the five lowest-quoted world growths for the Far East edged up eight points to 64.59 cents during the week ended Thursday, according to USDA calculations, while the lowest-priced U.S. cotton gained 20 points to 66.45 cents.
The U.S. premium thus widened 12 points to 1.86 cents. The adjusted world price for the week ending next Thursday, reflecting transportation and quality differentials, is figured at 44.84 cents, up from 44.76 cents. This results in a corresponding marketing loan gain dip to 7.16 cents.
There again will be no fine count adjustment on 2015-crop cotton for qualities better than 31-3-35. The adjustment is designed to reflect differences in premiums in U.S. and international markets.
Futures open interest expanded 1,189 lots Wednesday to 212,921, with MayΆs down 271 lots to 111,746 and JulyΆs up 641 lots to 48,224. Cert stocks remained at 49,067 bales.
