Decline in U.S. weekly crop ratings offered support. World 2016-17 carryover estimate debated after USDA forecast points to a dramatic reduction of nearly 23 million bales from the record of 2014-15.

Cotton futures eked out small gains for a second session on thin volume Tuesday as benchmark December finished near the low after climbing above the prior-day day high.

December settled up 16 points, trading within a 75-point range from up nine points at 68.37 to up 84 points at 69.12 cents. It set the low for the session just after the opening overnight.

Nearby October closed up 20 points to 68.12 cents, March up 17 points to 69.12 cents and December 2017 up nine points to 68.62 cents.

A decline in U.S. cotton crop ratings for the fifth consecutive week offered support. The USDA weekly report, released after the close Monday, had been generally expected to show improvement.

Volume dwindled to an estimated 11,779 lots from 16,027 lots the previous session when spreads accounted for 5,543 lots or 35%, EFP 43 lots and EFS 44 lots. Options volume totaled 989 calls and 2,099 puts.

World cotton watchers have continued to debate whether USDAΆs global carryover projection for 2016-17 still may be overstated after a cut this month of 1.68 million bales from the July forecast on a combination of lower beginning stocks and production.

“Most analysts, if not all, feel the USDA estimate of world carryover is somewhat bloated,” Mississippi StateΆs widely known cotton marketing specialist O.A. Cleveland commented in a report.

“But until the department makes adjustments, world traders will continue to point to the unmanageable stocks situation around the globe, with particular emphasis on Indian and Chinese stocks.”

Global stocks are projected to fall 10% by seasonΆs end to 89.6 million bales, USDAΆs Economic Research Service noted in an outlook report. Back-to-back reductions from the 2014-15 record of 112.4 million bales have dramatically lowered the ending stocks estimate by nearly 23 million bales.

Stocks are expected to decline for the major producers except the United States. Leading the reduction is China, where sales from government-owned stocks and limited import expectations are projected to reduce the carryover by nearly 10 million bales to 50.7 million.

Despite that sharp decline, stocks in China continue to account for the bulk of the world carryover. However, ChinaΆs share of global stocks is forecast to fall to about 57% this season from 61% in 2013-14.

Elsewhere, the share of ending stocks is projected to rise slightly for the United States, India and the rest of the world. With lower ending stocks and higher consumption, the global stocks-to-use ratio is forecast to fall nearly 10 percentage points from year ago.

The projected 2016-17 stocks-to-use ratio of 80.5% would be significantly below the 102% of 2014-15 and the lowest in five years.

Futures open interest declined 1,985 lots Monday to 228,656, with DecemberΆs down 2,763 lots to 158,598 and MarchΆs up 578 lots to 47,761. Certified stocks declined 1,750 bales to 62,291.