Weekly export sales-shipments report eyed. International cotton prices averaged the highest in March since June 2014.
Cotton futures ended little changed in old-crop deliveries and on modest gains in new-crop contracts in inside-day price action Wednesday.
Spot May finished up two points to 74.87 cents, near the midpoint of its 54-point range from down 20 points at 74.65 cents to up 34 points at 75.19 cents. It traded within the prior-session range and remained above uptrend line support at 74.50.
July eked up five points to close at 76.66 cents, trading within a 56-point range from 76.46 to 77.02 cents. December posted the largest gain, closing up 40 points to 73.39 cents to finish in the upper third of its 83-point range from 72.85 to 73.68 cents.
In outside markets, U.S. stock indexes reversed off strong gains to trade lower, while U.S. dollar index futures ticked down 0.1%. Corn closed up 0.4% in May and December, while soybeans gained 0.7% in May and 0.5% in November. May wheat gained 0.6% at Chicago and 0.8% at Kansas City. Crude oil lost early gains and traded off 0.2% on increased inventories.
Cotton volume slipped to an estimated 36,500 lots from 58,264 lots the prior session when spreads accounted for 24,817 lots or 43%, EFP 147 lots and EFS 46 lots.
Traders awaited the U.S. weekly export sales-shipments report, scheduled for release at 7:30 a.m. CDT Thursday. Cumulative upland sales already have slightly exceeded the USDA export estimate, with 18 weeks left in the marketing year, and shipments are up 74% from a year ago.
Many observers expect another increase in the U.S. export estimate in USDAΆs monthly supply-demand report, set for release on Tuesday. This could result in lowering the ending stocks estimate for 2016-17, now forecast at 27.3% of market offtake, compared with 30.2% last season.
The report Thursday again is generally expected to show a slowing of upland sales from the net 392,300 running bales sold during the week ended March 23. Robust sales have consistently topped most expectations in recent weeks. Upland sales the last four weeks have averaged 321,500 RB and upland shipments have averaged 410,200 RB.
May futures prices ranged between 76.10 and 78.15 cents during the last reporting week and finished with a 104-point loss for the period at 76.23 cents.
International cotton prices as measured by the Cotlook A Index averaged 86.78 cents in March, the highest monthly value not only of this season but since June 2014, Cotton Outlook noted in a monthly review.
The index opened the month at 85.25 cents, fluctuated higher within a range of a few cents, and ended at 86.35 cents. Coming into Wednesday, the widely watched index was 86 cents.
Mill buying in March remained concentrated on U.S. cotton, which retained its competitive advantage on price and availability considerations, Cotton Outlook said, adding that this resulted in impressive weekly export numbers throughout the period.
Cotlook introduced its Forward (2017-18) A Index on March 24, reflecting cotton for shipment no earlier than October-November. The initial value of 84.15 cents represented a discount of 2.70 cents to the current index. By March 31, the gap had widened modestly to 3.85 cents.
Futures open interest fell 2,781 lots Tuesday to 277,475, with MayΆs down 8,832 lots to 118,979, JulyΆs up 4,012 lots to 69,045 and DecemberΆs up 1,821 lots to 79,013. Cert stocks grew 1,167 bales to 328,582. Awaiting review were 775 bales at Galveston.
