U.S. weekly export sales reported at the low end of expectations. All-cotton commitments trailed year-ago bookings by about 18% and cumulative shipments lagged last seasonΆs pace by about 16%.
Cotton futures retreated from a modest gain to finish lower for the fourth consecutive session Thursday after U.S. weekly export sales came in at the low end of expectations.
Spot May slipped 53 points to close at 90.98 cents, around the lower third of its 112-point range from up 22 points at 91.73 to down 90 points at 90.61 cents. This extended its losing streak to four sessions in a row and was its lowest close since March 24.
July shed 72 points to close at 91.25 cents, 15 points off the low of its 95-point range, and December dipped 27 points to 79.44 cents, in the middle of its 58-point trading span.
Volume totaled an electronically estimated 22,032 lots, against a cleared 25,442 lots the previous session when spreads totaled 14,394 lots or 57%, EFP 43 lots and EFS 32 lots.
Net U.S. all-cotton export sales for shipment this season of 48,200 running bales during the week ended March 27, down from the prior weekΆs 79,000, nudged commitments up to 9.552 million RB.
Commitments remained about 92% of the USDA export forecast, about the same percentage of final 2012-13 shipments at the corresponding point last season. The gap behind commitments a year ago widened about 120,000 RB to 2.076 million or about 18%.
To match the USDA export estimate, sales need to average roughly 48,700 RB a week. Additional cotton from existing stocks is expected to be required to satisfy commitments early next season prior to volume movement of new-crop supplies.
All-cotton shipments of 263,300 RB, down from 278,400 RB the week before and the smallest since the week ended Jan. 16, brought exports for the season to 6.89 million RB.
This lifted shipments to about 66% of the USDA projection, against about 65% of final exports a year ago. Exports widened the lag behind year-ago shipments to 1.349 million RB or to about 16%. The latest USDA estimate is about 18% below last seasonΆs exports.
A tight domestic supply and smaller import demand from China are projected to reduce exports to the lowest since 2000-01.
To achieve the USDA estimate, all-cotton shipments need to average approximately 205,300 running bales a week. Shipments during the last 17 weeks of the 2012-13 marketing year averaged around 258,900 RB per week.
Net sales of 71,500 RB for shipment next season, down from an all-cotton net of 78,600 RB the previous week, hiked 2014-15 commitments to 1.226 million RB. This narrowed the margin behind forward sales a year ago to 56,700 RB.
Futures open interest dipped 187 lots Wednesday to 183,706, with MayΆs down 4,186 lots to 85,708, JulyΆs up 3,212 lots to 52,618 and DecemberΆs up 451 lots to 41,150.
Certificated stocks declined 151 bales to 254,406. There were 932 newly certified bales and 1,083 bales decertified.
World values as measured by the Cotlook Index fell 75 points Thursday morning to 95.30 cents. The index premium to WednesdayΆs May futures settlement narrowed 19 points to a new low for the move of 3.79 cents, suggesting a further loss of U.S. price competitiveness.
