DTN Cotton Close: Extends Losses on Sharp Decline

DTN Cotton Close: Extends Losses on Sharp Decline

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The May contract fell below its 200-day moving average. China?s cotton plantings projected to grow 3.3%. Mills priced 4,928 on-call lots across the board and producers added 2,229 lots.

Cotton futures extended losses on heavy volume Friday as spot May tumbled to a new low for the move and through its 200-day moving average.

The May contract lost 105 points to close at 73.46 cents, its lowest close since Jan. 19 and below its 200-day MA coming into the session at 73.55. It finished near the low of its 122-point range from up nine points at 74.60 to down 113 points at 73.38, shedding 387 points for the week.

July closed down 93 points to 75.47 cents, trading within a 104-point range from 76.45 to 75.41 cents and losing 312 points for the week. December settled down 98 points to 72.29 cents, just off the low of its 98-point range from 73.17 to 72.19 cents and down 180 points for the week. That was December?s lowest close since Jan. 31.

Volume jumped to an estimated 73,616 lots from 40,929 lots the previous session when spreads accounted for 24,202 lots or 59%, EFS 1,593 lots and EFP 34 lots. Options volume increased to 9,551 lots (5,398 calls and 4,153 puts) from 2,029 lots (1,219 calls and 810 puts). The Goldman Sachs index fund roll from May began a five-day run.

Traders took note of a U.S. agricultural attach report that higher 2016-17 cotton prices and continued government subsidies are expected to encourage a moderate expansion in 2017-18 cotton plantings in China.

The USDA post estimated that plantings will grow 3.3% and production will recover by 2% to 23.65 million bales. The crop still would be among the lowest in a decade compared with official production statistics.

China, the world?s second largest cotton producer, remains focused on reducing its state cotton reserves. The post forecast overall 2017-18 ending stocks to fall to 40.853 million bales from its estimate for 2016-17 of 49.493 million with the stocks-to-use ratio down to 111% from 136%.

Expecting Chinese sales of cotton reserves and restrictions on additional import quotas, the Beijing post estimated China?s imports this season at 4.5 million bales, second lowest in 13 years.

Still, China?s mills continue to use higher-grade foreign cotton to stay competitive in export textile markets. The post projected 2017-18 imports at 4.6 million bales.

Meanwhile, mills priced 4,928 on-call lots across the futures board last week to reduce their unfixed position to 113,357 lots, while producers added 2,229 lots to boost theirs to 34,810 lots.

The net call difference thus fell 7,152 lots to 78,547, which was 28.1% of the declining open interest, Commodity Futures Trading Commission figures showed after the close Thursday. The unpriced ratio was 3.3:1.

In the old-crop May and July contracts, mills priced a net 9,254 lots and producers added 41 lots. This reduced the unfixed mill position to 63,105 lots and nudged the unpriced producer position up to 5,859 lots.

As a result, the net-call difference in the front two contracts declined 9,295 lots to 57,246, which was 29.5% of the old-crop open interest. Mills priced 8,729 lots in May and producers priced 395 lots, reducing their unpriced positions to 19,046 and 1,852 lots, respectively.

Futures open interest declined 2,551 lots Thursday to 268,539, with May?s down 6,831 lots to 102,677, July?s up 3,323 to 75,180 and December?s up 595 lots to 79,740. Cert stocks grew 413 bales to 329,622. Awaiting review were 1,600 bales at Galveston.

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