July and December traded within prior-session ranges. Traders awaited USDA’s weekly export sales-shipments report and supply-demand estimates on Thursday.
Cotton futures marked time in quiet dealings Wednesday, with July and December finishing on the plus side after trading within narrow ranges within the prior-day price spans.
July settled up 48 points to 85.86 cents, in the upper quarter of its 86-point range from down 20 points at 85.18 cents to up 66 points at 86.04 cents. December closed up 46 points to 80.56 cents, near the high of its 75-point range from down 20 points at 79.90 cents to up 33 points at 80.65 cents.
Traders awaited USDA’s weekly U.S. export sales-shipments report and the 2017-18 and 2018-18 supply demand forecasts at 7:30 a.m. CST and 11 a.m. CST, respectively, on Thursday.
Volume slowed to an estimated 21,800 lots from 31,538 lots the previous session when spreads accounted for 12,507 lots or 40% and EFS 122 lots. Options volume dipped to 5,458 lots (2,055 calls and 3,403 puts) from 15,462 lots (7,166 calls and 8,296 puts).
Some estimates for U.S. weekly upland export sales, set for release at 7:30 a.m. CST Thursday ahead of supply-demand reports at 11 a.m. CST, range from 150,000 to 225,000 running bales of upland for shipment this season. Prices during the reporting week ended May 3 ranged from 83.32 cents to 85.12 cents, basis July.
Upland sales the last four weeks have averaged 217,900 RB for this season and 204,200 RB for shipment next season. Shipments have averaged 428,900 RB, well above the pace needed to make the USDA estimate.
Analysts expect USDA to raise its 2017-18 export estimate 200,000 to 300,000 statistical 480-pound bales — still well shy of some estimates — from 15 million bales projected last month. Ending stocks are expected to drop to around 5 million bales from 5.3 million foreseen in April, up from beginning stocks of 2.75 million bales.
A number of world cotton watchers have contended USDA’s estimate of 2017-18 world ending stocks, lowered 560,000 bales last month to 88.28 million, has remained overstated, mainly because of inflated ending stocks estimates for India, China and Pakistan.
Certified stocks in deliverable position increased 542 bales to 72,999. There were 250 newly certified bales and 792 bales decertified. Open interest rose by 775 lots to 286,401 on Tuesday, with July’s down 1,223 lots to 142,133 lots and December’s up 997 lots to 114,124 lots.
