DTN Cotton Close: Finishes Sharply Lower

DTN Cotton Close: Finishes Sharply Lower

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Spot July settled 29 points under December. ChinaΆs April imports fell 15% from a year ago.

Cotton futures fell to sharp losses and closed just off the lows Tuesday as spot July finished under DecemberΆs settlement.

July lost 192 points to settle at 83.86 cents, a tick below its May 1 finish and beyond that its lowest settlement since April 25. It settled four points off the low of its 193-point range from down three points at 85.75 to down 196 points at 83.82 cents.

December shed 145 points to close at 84.15 cents, nine points off the low of its 153-point range from down a point at 85.59 to down 154 points at 84.06 cents.

July had been steadily losing its premium to December, with crop concerns contributing to new-crop support and heavy cert stocks — though the stocks dipped Tuesday — weighing on the old-crop delivery.

Volume quickened to an estimated 29,710 lots from 17,489 lots the previous session when spreads totaled 6,003 lots or 34%, EFP 147 lots and EFS 8 lots. Options volume totaled 8,721 calls and 3,955 puts.

ChinaΆs April cotton imports fell 15% from a year earlier to 430,867 metric tons (1.98 million 480-pound bales), Dow Jones Newswires reported, quoting the General Administration of Customs. January-April imports fell 13.5% to 1.8 million tons (8.27 million bales).

The USDA in its supply-demand estimates earlier this month raised its estimate of ChinaΆs imports by 1.75 million bales from its April forecast to 18.25 million for the 2012-13 marketing year ending July 31.

ChinaΆs 2013-14 imports are forecast at 12 million bales, down 34% from 2012-13, as growing official reserve stocks — in defense of producer minimum support price — create less need for foreign cotton.

In forecasting ChinaΆs 2013-14 imports, USDA took into consideration current reserve release prices and import quota policies. The 2013-14 projection puts ChinaΆs share of global imports at 40%, down 14 percentage points from 2012-13.

Imports are forecast to increase in Bangladesh, Pakistan, Mexico and Turkey but not by enough to offset the sharp decrease in China. Also, IndiaΆs imports are projected to fall 30% to a million bales.

World 2013-14 cotton trade is forecast to decline 12% from 2012-13 owing to a combination of lower exportable supplies and ChinaΆs policy-driven lower demand for foreign cotton.

This would represent the third consecutive annual decline in global trade amid sharply lower exports foreseen for such major exporters as Australia, Brazil, India and the United States.

Futures open interest expanded 2,191 lots Monday to 188,764, with JulyΆs up 829 lots to 123,813 and DecemberΆs up 1,197 lots to 61,008.

Certificated stocks declined 3,585 bales to 506,710. There were 264 newly certified bales, 3,849 bales decertified and 3,094 bales awaiting review.

World values as measured by the Cotlook A Index dropped 50 points Tuesday morning to 93.40 cents. The premium to MondayΆs July futures settlement widened 13 points to 7.62 cents.

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