DTN Cotton Close: Futures Surge on Massive Volume

DTN Cotton Close: Futures Surge on Massive Volume

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Volume estimated at a huge 65,292 lots. May extended a string of higher weekly closes to five in a row. Mills priced 1,049 on-call lots in May.

Cotton futures surged higher on massive volume Friday, with spot May powering through buy stops to its highest close since Feb. 8.

May closed up 104 points to 60.07 cents, around the upper third of its 153-point trading range from up two points at 59.05 to up 155 points at 60.58 cents. It took out watched chart resistance at 60.40 but closed below that.

July gained 99 points to settle at 59.56 cents and December rose 63 points to close at 58.84 cents. For the week, the market advanced 87 points in May, 72 points in July and 58 points in December.

The May contract came into the day having posted four consecutive weekly gains, though by margins as narrow as one and four points prior to rising 56 points week before last and nearly 200 points last week.

Volume was estimated at a huge 65,292 lots, up from an upward revision to 51,693 lots the previous session when spreads accounted for a whopping 40,538 lots or 78%, EFS 110 lots and EFP 13 lots. Options volume totaled 11,308 calls and 2,840 puts.

MayΆs ability to hold this week above its 50-day moving average on a closing basis offered a technical underpinning, analysts said, and a second close — albeit narrowly — above 59 cents in six sessions on Thursday may have been seen as further confirmation of a head-and-shoulders bottoming pattern.

A 61.8% retracement of the 11.27-cent decline from the December high to the February contract low at 54.53 cents would be 61.50 and a 75% retrace would be 62.99.

Tightening availability of higher quality cottons and a positive macroeconomic tone likely contributed to the advance. Replenishment of stocks in deliverable position may be difficult on a significant scale ahead of the movement of new-crop supplies.

The percentage of tenderable qualities in the latest available classing data for the U.S. 2015 crop was the second lowest in the last 20 years and the availability from certain other origins also is reported tightening. However, widening premiums on old-crop cotton at some point could curb demand, analysts added.

Meanwhile, mills priced 1,049 on-call lots and producers fixed 141 lots last week in May, reducing their unpriced positions to 11,423 lots and 4,302 lots, respectively, according to the latest Commodity Futures Trading Commission data.

The net call difference declined 908 lots to 7,121, which was 6.89% of MayΆs declining open interest, compared with 7.27% a week earlier.

With first notice day for May deliveries looming at the time three weeks ahead, the unfixed mill position outweighed that of producers by a ratio of 2.66:1, down from 2.81:1.

Mills also priced 1,668 lots in July and 1,635 lots in December, while producers fixed 1,861 lots and added 258 lots, respectively.

Separately, U.S. upland loans outstanding fell 21,289 running bales to 2.99 million RB during the week ended Monday, according to USDA figures. Repayments were made on 22,112 RB and entries were 823 RB.

Upland bales under loan included 243,859 of Form A issued to individual growers and 2.746 million of Form G issued to marketing cooperatives or loan servicing agents.

Futures open interest fell 331 lots Thursday to 222,917, with MayΆs down 8,916 lots to 86,948 and JulyΆs up 7,495 lots to 73,951. Cert stocks remained at 36,316 bales, smallest since Feb. 12.

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