DTN Cotton Close: Inside-Day Higher on Thin Volume

DTN Cotton Close: Inside-Day Higher on Thin Volume

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Widespread, heavy rains expected Wednesday and Thursday on the Texas Plains. India scheduled to buy large purchases from farmers.

Cotton futures closed moderately higher on thin volume Tuesday, recapturing nearly all the prior dayΆs loss in spot December on inside-range price action.

December settled up 58 points to 63.78 cents, near the high of its 71-point range from down eight points at 63.16 to up 63 points at 63.87 cents. March also gained 58 points, closing at 63.70 cents.

Volume slowed to an estimated 13,700 lots from 20,782 lots the previous session when spreads accounted for 7,685 lots or 37% and EFP 40 lots. Options volume totaled 441 calls and 883 puts.

Scattered thunderstorms developed Tuesday in parts of the Texas High Plains and were expected to become widespread Wednesday and Thursday. About 30% coverage was expected in the Lubbock area on Tuesday, rising to 80% Wednesday and Thursday and dropping to 50% Thursday night.

Only light rainfall had been reported by early Tuesday afternoon, with Reese Center just west of Lubbock recording 0.39 of an inch.

Rain totals are expected to range from 1 inch to 4 inches along with possibly some locally heavier amounts. Sunny skies now are forecast to return on Friday and remain mostly sunny into at least early next week.

A few strong thunderstorms will be capable of hail and strong winds, forecasters said. Heavy rain could lead to excessive runoff and local flooding. A flash flood watch was issued for Wednesday night into Thursday for an area including the southwestern and western Plains counties of Andrews, Dawson, Gaines and Martin.

Sunny skies and good drying conditions could help to bleach out the open cotton and minimize effects on quality, crop specialists said, though some heavier rainfall areas may need considerable time to dry out.

The weather also could result in stringing from the bur in some fields, depending upon rainfall intensity and winds, which could affect stripper harvesting efficiency. Most varieties grown on the High Plains are relatively tight-boll cottons, however.

Significant rains also are expected to spread from eastern New Mexico through other areas of Texas and into Oklahoma. As of Sunday, 28% of the Texas crop had been harvested and 92% of the bolls were open.

On the international scene, India will be forced to make large-scale government cotton purchases from farmers for a second straight year following a cut in imports by top buyer China that has depressed prices, Reuters reported, quoting industry officials.

India was reported to have spent 160 billion rupees ($2.5 billion) to buy 8.7 million bales at a government-set minimum support price in the last marketing year, up from just 400,000 bales the previous year. Those apparently were 170-kilo bales or 6.8 million 480-pound bales.

Government buying, aimed at supporting farmers, will prevent the dumping of cotton in overseas markets by the worldΆs biggest producer at a time when global prices are near six-year lows, the report said.

Although global 2015-16 ending stocks are projected by USDA to decline 4% or nearly 5 million bales from last yearΆs record to 107 million, world prices also are forecast lower. The Cotlook A Index of world values is projected slightly below the 2014-15 average of 71 cents to the lowest since 2008-09.

Futures open interest increased 1,348 lots Monday to 192,897, with DecemberΆs down 448 lots to 114,896 and MarchΆs up 1,438 lots to 57,881. Cert stocks grew 90,000 bales to 43,409. Awaiting review were 3,611 bales.

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