A negative tone in outside markets and improving U.S. crop conditions contributed to selling. Crop estimate for Egypt slashed to all-time low.
Cotton futures settled mostly lower Tuesday, with a late rally in most-active December lifting it to session highs and paring its closing loss to modest proportions.
December settled down 17 points at 63.91 cents, around the upper third of its 94-point range from down 80 points at 63.28 to up 14 points at 64.22 cents. It ticked last at 64.14 cents, up six points.
Spot July closed down 75 points at 63.04 cents, slightly below the middle of its trading band from unchanged at 63.79 to down 121 points at 62.58 cents. It opened on the session high, fell below lows of the prior two weeks and settled back above a 62.81 technical support point.
The December 2017 contract closed up six points to 65.12 cents.
Volume dipped to an estimated 47,471 lots from 49,612 lots the previous session when spreads accounted for 26,929 lots or 54%, EFS 531 lots and EFP 358 lots. Options volume totaled 7,873 calls and 3,220 puts.
A selloff in global stock markets in a “risk-off” atmosphere amid fresh concerns about world economic growth appeared to have encouraged additional fund-spec long liquidation on the heels of the prior dayΆs wide-swinging outside-range reversal down on declining open interest.
Improving U.S. crop conditions amid abundant soil moisture in the West Texas Plains may have contributed to selling.
While recent precipitation across much of the Cotton Belt was generally beneficial, the effect on area and yield remains uncertain as planting was delayed and still is in progress, USDAΆs Economic Research Service said in an outlook report Tuesday.
The acreage estimate of 9.56 million acres will be updated in the June 30 report on actual plantings as of early June as well as any remaining cotton estimated still to be planted.
The unchanged June crop projection of 14.8 million bales, up 15% from the final 2015 production, was off a harvested area forecast of 8.8 million acres on below-average abandonment of 8%, which is slightly above last yearΆs 6%.
Yield estimates were carried forward at an average of 807 pounds per harvested acre, up from 766 pounds in 2015 but down from the five-year average of 829 pounds.
The USDAΆs National Agricultural Statistics Service will begin its “in field” production surveys in August.
On the international scene, a U.S. agricultural attache report has projected a dramatic plunge in 2016-17 Egyptian cotton production.
The post said the latest field surveys indicated a plunge in planted area of 50% to 50,000 hectares (one hectare is 2.471 acres) from 2015-16. Farmers are particularly wary of planting cotton without a strong government commitment to market the crop, the report said.
The crop estimate was slashed to an all-time low of 160,000 bales. This is down from an earlier forecast of 395,000 bales and a drop of 53% from last yearΆs production of 320,000 bales.
Lint consumption remained projected at 590,000 bales. Imports are forecast to increase by 18% from 2015-16 to 530,000 bales and exports to drop 20% to 120,000 bales.
Futures open interest fell 2,844 lots Monday to 205,384, with JulyΆs down 8,824 lots to 42,276 and DecemberΆs up 5,087 lots to 138,150. Cert stocks grew 2,607 bales to 122,687. Awaiting review were 4,174 bales.