Cut expected in crop estimate for China. U.S. classing reached 8.627 million bales. Harvesting rushed ahead of wet, wintry weather. Producers in South Texas encouraged by improved subsoil moisture.
Cotton futures settled little changed Monday after edging up to a new intraday high for the move ahead of updated supply-demand estimates.
Spot March eased off five points to close at 80.36 cents, just below the midpoint of its 70-point range from down 36 points at 80.05 to up 34 points at 80.75 cents, highest intraday price since Oct. 31. May edged up three points to settle at 80.69 cents.
Volume slowed to an estimated 14,600 lots from 23,378 lots the previous session when spreads accounted for 5,960 lots or 26% and EFP for 14 lots. Options volume totaled 2,114 calls and 2,777 puts.
The USDA will release its monthly U.S. and world supply-demand estimates at 11 a.m. CST on Tuesday.
Analysts generally expect a slight increase in U.S. exports to offset a modest increase in production, leaving domestic ending stocks unchanged from the November forecast, according to a survey of cotton analysts by The Wall Street Journal.
China will command the spotlight in the world estimates, with a sizable cut in production expected to more than offset slight increases elsewhere, including India, Pakistan and the United States. A modest increase in world cotton consumption wouldnΆt be surprising, analysts say.
Thus a decrease might be seen in the record high world stocks-to-use ratio, projected last month at 87.3%, up from 84% foreseen in the initial forecasts in May and from 82.2% last season.
Meanwhile, U.S. all-cotton classing of 1.232 million running bales during the week ended Dec. 5 boosted the total for the season to 8.627 million RB, down from 12.741 million RB a year ago. About 68% of the November production estimate had been classed.
Classing of upland cotton increased to 1.168 million running bales for the week, raising the total for the season to 8.227 million RB, down from 12.328 million a year ago.
Cotton tenderable on futures contracts improved to 63.2% for the season from 62.9% a week earlier and 57.5% a year ago.
Though early morning fog delayed fieldwork in many areas of the Southeast, harvesting progressed as producers attempted to get as much cotton off the stalk as possible ahead of late-week wet weather, USDA said in a weekly review. Gins continued to process backlogs of modules.
Producers in the North Delta also rushed to get cotton out of harmΆs way ahead of forecasts for severe winter weather, including freezing rain and ice storms. Harvesting reached about 90% complete in Missouri and 80% in Tennessee. In the South Delta, ginning was rapidly drawing to a close in Mississippi and was virtually completed in Louisiana.
In Texas, frequent equipment breakdowns plagued the limited ginning that continued in the Upper Coast. Producers in the Rio Grande Valley and South Texas were encouraged by improved subsoil moisture ahead of planting, which initially begins in the valley in late February.
Full-throttle harvesting reached about 90% to 95% complete in the Lubbock area ahead of another winter storm. More than 20,000 bales were still on the stalk in one northern county late in the week. Most cotton in the southern High Plains was in modules, though some producers had just started harvesting.
The harvest wasnΆt as far along in the Rolling Plains and varied from 30% to 50% done, according to gin reports.
Futures open interest expanded 1,327 lots Friday to 158,938, with MarchΆs up 446 lots to 111,480 and MayΆs up 586 lots to 25,215.
Certificated stocks fell 3,220 bales to 91,141. There were five newly certified bales and 3,225 bales decertified.
World values as measured by the Cotlook A Index gained 150 points Monday morning to 86.80 cents. The premium to FridayΆs March futures settlement narrowed six points to 6.39 cents.