DTN Cotton Close: Lower Finish Again; India Could Lose 15 to 20% of Crop

DTN Cotton Close: Lower Finish Again; India Could Lose 15 to 20% of Crop

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U.S. weekly export report appears generally expected to show another round of sluggish sales. Indian agriculture official urged research and development strategy to combat insect pests, weeds and diseases.

Cotton futures finished lower for the third session in a row Wednesday, chopping back and forth within a trading range established by early morning.

  • December lost 92 points to settle at 72.35 cents, in the lower half of its 163-point range from up 12 points at 73.39 to down 151 points at 71.76 cents. March closed down 69 points to 72.80 cents, while nearby October slid 101 points to 71.95 cents.
  • Volume slowed to an estimated 24,455 lots from 28,079 lots the previous session when spreads accounted for 9,042 lots or 32%, EFP 99 lots and EFS 67 lots. Options volume totaled 6,568 calls and 9,129 puts.
  • The USDA export report on Thursday appears generally expected to show another round of sluggish sales for the week ended July 14. Combined upland sales the previous week totaled 168,900 running bales for the 2015-16 and 2016-17 marketing years.
  • Dwindling availability of 2015-crop supplies, especially of the higher qualities, contributed to dropping sales during the week ended July 7 to an 11-week low to 55,200 RB for shipment this season, while upland sales for next season slipped to a three-week low to 113,700 RB.
  • Net upland sales the last four weeks have averaged 121,400 RB for shipment this season and 119,200 RB for next season. Upland shipments fell to 148,700 RB during the last reporting week but nudged the four-week average up to 212,600 RB from 210,700 RB.
  • Stronger-than-expected shipments through June resulted in USDA raising its 2015-16 export estimate to 9.2 million statistical bales, up 200,000 bales from its prior forecast but still the lowest since 2000-01 on the smallest U.S. supply — crop plus beginning stocks — since 1984-85.
  • A larger U.S. supply based on an increased domestic production forecast and a reduced foreign crop projection to the lowest since 2003-04 are expected to help 2016-17 exports rebound to 11.5 million bales.

INDIA

  • Meanwhile, India, the world’s largest producer, could lose 15% to 25% of its potential crop to insect pests, weeds and diseases at a time the country needs to raise production to meet growing consumption, Dow Jones Newswires reported, quoting a senior agriculture official.
  • In an average year, yield losses in India range between 10% and 30%, the report said. ThereΆs an urgent need to forge a research and development strategy to save the crop from those pests, said Hukmdev Narayan Yadav, chairman of the standing committee of parliament on agriculture and farmers welfare.
  • India has been buying U.S. cotton lately, purchasing in the last two reporting weeks 37,000 RB for shipment this season and 58,700 RB for next season, and has been reported importing cotton predominantly from Africa.
  • The countryΆs Cotton Advisory Board last week cut its 2015-16 crop estimate to a five-year low of 33.8 million bales of 170 kilos or 26.4 million 480-pound bales, down from USDAΆs 26.8 million bales. ThereΆs a wide difference in the CAB and USDA estimates of ending stocks.
  • Futures open interest expanded 1,383 lots Tuesday to 231,269, with DecemberΆs down 725 lots to 181,770 and MarchΆs up 1,604 lots to 31,583. Cert stocks declined 1,936 bales to 126,029.
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