U.S. all-cotton export commitments for 2015-16 reached 54% of the USDA estimate. China returned as the leading buyer.

U.S. cotton futures fell to new lows for the move on brisk volume Thursday, with spot March settling at its lowest finish since Oct. 2.

• March closed down 57 points to 61.43 cents, trading from up 19 points at 62.19 to down 79 points at 61.21 cents. It rallied from around 61.45 to the high in early morning but quickly lost momentum, printed the lowest intraday price since Oct. 9 and finished in the lower quarter of the 98-point range.
• May settled down 63 points to 62.12 cents, while December finished down 66 points to 62.97 cents.
• Worries about the status of the global economy emanating from outside markets continued to weigh on cotton sentiment. China allowed the yuan to fall further, raising concerns about competitive devaluations.
• Volume rose to an estimated 41,439 lots from 32,862 lots the previous session when spreads accounted for 8,749 lots or 27% and EFP 894 lots. Options volume totaled 7,689 calls and 10,711 puts.

Weekly export sales came in for a holiday-marked period at the lower end of the range of some trade expectations.

Net U.S. all-cotton export sales for shipment this season of 92,200 running bales during the week ended Dec. 31, down from 114,300 RB the previous week, brought 2015-16 commitments to 5.266 million RB.

With 30 weeks left in the marketing year, commitments — outstanding sales of 2.827 million RB plus shipments — were 54% of the USDA export forecast. A year ago, commitments were 70% of final 2014-15 shipments.

Commitments trailed year-ago bookings by 2.404 million RB or by 31%. Weekly all-cotton sales need to average roughly 147,800 RB to match the USDA export projection.

All-cotton shipments of 172,200 RB, up from 166,500 the prior week and the largest of the crop year for upland-Pima combined, boosted the season’s total to 2.439 million RB, 89,000 RB behind year-ago exports.

Shipments amounted to 25% of the USDA forecast, compared with 23% of final exports at the corresponding point last season. Exports need to average approximately 242,000 RB a week to reach the USDA forecast.

Some observers still considered the forecast optimistic after USDA cut its export estimate last month by 200,000 bales to 10 million statistical bales, Cotton Outlook had noted earlier in a monthly review.

But it said the prospect remains of a revival in demand when Chinese mills are allocated their tariff-rated quota for 2016 and spinners favoring machine-picked styles are prompted to enter the market to cover their requirements.

China, which has booked only a fraction of the amount it had bought a year ago, returned as the leading buyer in the latest reporting week, taking 26,400 RB of upland.

A net reduction of 100 bales in 2016-17 commitments left new-crop bookings at 741,200 RB, still 179,300 RB ahead of forward sales a year ago.

Futures open interest edged up 86 lots Wednesday to 185,209, with MarchΆs down 21 lots to 121,454, MayΆs down 718 to 32,007 and increases in July and December. Certificated stocks dropped 43 bales to 64,249.