The cotton market was sharply lower Monday as a weekend tweet by President Trump threatened to derail the U.S.-China trade talks. In his Sunday rant, the President implied China was not serious in arriving at a deal and indicated he would raise all U.S. tariffs on all Chinese goods. That twist sent much of the world’s financial and commodities markets reeling.

At one point, the Dow Jones futures were down well over 500 points and July cotton threaten to trade limit-down. Into the close, cotton did pare some of its losses, but that recovery was more evident in the new crop than old crop July.

The next possible bearish shoe to drop would be if the Chinese are no-shows this week. Such may be negotiating posturing on their part, but none has occurred at such a crucial moment in the life of the talks. Keep in mind that last week, Trump’s own negotiators were saying a deal was at hand and would announced by this Friday. We suspect the world is waiting with bated breath.

Monday afternoon, USDA will release its latest crop planting data. Generally speaking, the 2019 Crop is going in well, with no obvious weather delays. However, a failed trade deal might curtail some eventual acreage. It seems that politics are the wildcard for cotton in 2019 — not the weather. At least, not just yet.

Monday July cotton settled at 73.55 cents, down 2.13 cents, December closed at 72.91 cents, off 1.54 cents and March finished at 73.64 cents, down 1.39 cents. Monday’s estimated volume 49,345 contracts.