U.S. export commitments reached about 101% of the USDA estimate and shipments about 85%. Hot, breezy conditions may challenge record high date temperature at Lubbock.
Cotton futures extended a losing streak to nine sessions in a row Friday, finishing just off the dayΆs lows on a new low close for the move.
Spot July closed down 77 points to 79.36 cents, six ticks off the low of its 126-point range from up 43 points at 80.56 to down 83 points at 79.30 cents. It lost 811 points or 8.1% for the month.
December also settled off 77 points at 82.06 cents, also six ticks off the low of its 114-point range from up 31 points at 83.14 to down 83 points at 82.06 cents. March dropped 87 points to 82.38 cents.
For the week, the market lost 213 points in July, 171 points in December and 120 points in March. Late-week stability in the July-December spread was surprising in view of index fund rolls, an analyst said.
Volume slipped to an estimated 31,300 lots from 41,078 lots the previous session when spreads totaled 22,962 lots or 56%, EFP 936 lots and block trades 51 lots. Options volume totaled 4,255 calls and 1,570 puts.
U.S. all-cotton export commitments for 2012-13 reached 13.005 million running bales during the week ended May 23 on sales of 119,800 bales, up from 107,100 bales the week before.
Commitments held an 875,000-bale lead over cumulative sales a year ago and totaled about 101% of the USDA estimate, against about 107% of final shipments at the corresponding point last season.
All-cotton exports for the season climbed to 10.889 million running bales on shipments of 319,000 bales, up from 254,100 bales the prior week. Shipments were 1.587 million bales or about 17% ahead of year-ago exports.
Exports amounted to about 85% of the USDA forecast, compared with 82% of final shipments a year ago. To achieve the estimate, shipments now need to average roughly 218,200 running bales a week.
New-crop sales of 38,600 bales boosted 2013-13 commitments to 1,684,200 running bales, narrowing the lead over forward bookings a year ago to 83,800 bales.
Commitments for next season are about 15% of the USDA forecast. A year ago, forward sales were about 12% of the current 2012-13 estimate.
Meanwhile, hot, breezy conditions this afternoon may stress emerging cotton in fields where moisture is limited on the Texas High Plains.
A high of 100 degrees is forecast for Lubbock, two degrees shy of the date record set in 1916 and 12 degrees above normal. Cotton is a hot weather plant and can thrive in heat where ample moisture is available.
But rainfall has remained spotty and erratic in what frequently is among the wetter months of the year on the High Plains. Through May 30, Lubbock had received 1.15 inches for the month, compared with 1.33 inches a year ago and the average of 2.20 inches.
Rainfall has totaled 1.19 inches since March 1, against 3.07 inches a year ago and a normal of 4.71 inches. Since Jan. 1, precipitation has amounted to 3.42 inches, down 0.23 of an inch from a year ago and 2.69 inches below normal.
Temperatures are expected to moderate over the weekend, with highs in the mid-80s under mostly sunny skies at Lubbock, before climbing to the low-to-upper 90-degree range early next week. A slight chance for showers and thunderstorms is forecast for Thursday.
Futures open interest fell 1,162 lots Thursday to 182,592, with JulyΆs down 5,583 lots to 101,428 and DecemberΆs up 3,968 lots to 74,027.
Certificated stocks grew 1,236 bales to 513,908. There were 1,534 newly certified bales, 298 bales decertified and 12,642 bales awaiting review.
World values as measured by the Cotlook A Index dropped 20 points Friday morning to 89.40 cents. The index premium to ThursdayΆs July futures settlement widened 37 points to 9.27 cents.
