By Keith Brown, DTN Contributing Cotton Analyst 

As the month of October fades and November commences, traders are beginning to think about December’s deliveries. Spot December’s FND falls on Nov. 24, and currently there seems to be about 26,000 bales of stocks. With the 2021 crop so late and strong demand, it would appear there could be a further ramping up of price. Thus, the Dec/March spread has widened to some 300 December over. 

Friday afternoon at 4 p.m. ET, the CFTC will issue its commitment of traders update. Traders are looking for a slightly bullish tilt from the position of managed-money funds. Currently, they are net long some 84,000 plus contracts.

USDA will issue its crop progress information on Monday. The overall harvesting pace for the crop has been slowed by various forms of weather adversities and maturation rates. Last count had the 2021 Crop at 35% gathered, with 91% bolls open, and was rated 64% good to excellent.

China has the most cotton commitments for 2021-22 at 2.550 million bales. However, her commitments are down from 3.34 million a year ago but are the second largest in 10 years. China was the largest buyer of U.S. cotton at 118,800 bales for 2021-22 and 20,000 for 2022-23 for a total of 206,669. However actual shipments of U.S. cotton tremendously lag. This delay is due to the global supply-chain crisis.

For Friday, December settled at 114.85 up 112, March ended at 111.22 plus 61, and Red December (2022) ended at 91.00, 72 points lower. Friday’s estimated volume was 47,115 contracts.