U.S. 2017-18 export commitments reached 72% of the shipments forecast and cumulative 2018-19 sales have more than doubled forward bookings a year ago. Weekly exports increased but remained slow at 127,000 RB.
Cotton futures settled lower amid overbought momentum readings and end-of-month influences Thursday, with March giving back around half the prior-session gain on an inside-range day.
March slipped 62 points to settle at 72.81 cents, around the middle of its 117-point range from 73.45-to-72.28 cents. It finished with a gain for the month of 447 points or 6.5%.
Maturing December closed down 48 points at 75.04 cents, trading within a 104-point range from 75.54-to-74.50 cents. For the month, December jumped 666 points or 9.7%.
The other contract months settled down one to 49 points. Supportive export sales data may have helped the market to pare the losses.
Traders also took note of surging stock markets — the Dow Jones Industrial Average crossed the 24,000 mark for the first time — on strong indications that President Donald Trump’s tax-cut plan may get enough support to pass.
Volume increased to an estimated 39,677 lots from 35,053 lots the prior session when spreads accounted for 33% and EFS 144 lots. Options volume jumped to 19,954 lots (13,560 calls and 6,394 puts) from 10,431 lots (6,544 calls and 3,887 puts).
Net U.S. all-cotton export sales for shipment this season of 285,100 running bales during the week ended last Thursday, down from 374,500 RB the prior week, boosted 2017-18 commitments to 10.093 million RB.
Commitments — outstanding sales of 7.813 million RB plus shipments — widened the lead over cumulative sales a year ago by 78,000 RB to 2.841 million and reached 72% of the USDA export forecast. A year ago, commitments were 50% of final 2016-17 shipments.
All-cotton shipments continued to lag at 127,000 RB, though up from 97,100 RB the prior week, with Pima exports rising 28% to a marketing year high for the extra-long staple cotton of 14,800 RB.
Shipments lagged 477,000 RB behind year-ago exports and were 16% of the USDA projection, compared with 19% of final 2016-17 exports at the corresponding point last season. Clogged warehouses, which are busy receiving cotton, may have contributed to the lag.
To achieve the forecast, shipments now need to average roughly 336,700 RB a week, while sales averaging approximately 113,500 RB would match the export projection.
Sales of 52,800 RB for shipment next season, up from 43,100 RB the prior week, hiked weekly sales for both crop years to 337,900 RB and pushed 2018-19 commitments over the million-bale mark. New-crop commitments of 1.013 million RB have more than doubled forward bookings a year ago of 494,700 RB.
Futures open interest expanded 5,371 lots to 242,744 on Wednesday, with December’s down 95 lots to 208 and March’s up 3,305 lots to 167,917. Last trading day for December is Wednesday. Stocks in deliverable position remained at 47,951 bales, unchanged since Friday, Nov. 17. No cotton awaited review.
