U.S. export estimate surged 800,000 bales to the fourth largest ever. World ending stocks increased 430,000 bales. Widespread rains expected in the Texas Plains. Gusty winds and record high temperatures noted over the weekend.

Cotton futures finished mixed Tuesday, with old-crop contracts settling on modest losses even after projected U.S. exports in the 2016-17 supply-demand forecasts jumped well beyond most pre-report estimates.

The May contract settled down 14 points to 75.01 cents, trading within a 139-point range from down 74 points at 74.41 to up 65 points at a six-session high at 75.80 cents. It touched the high on the heels of the supply-demand report, slipped to 74.57 and ticked up to near midrange.

July closed 38 points to 76.43 cents, trading within a 118-point range from 76.18 to 77.36 cents. December settled up 12 points to 73.36 cents, just above the midpoint of its 89-point range from 72.81 to 73.70.

Corn settled down 0.1% in the May and December contracts, while soybeans finished down 0.3% in May and 0.1% in November. May Chicago wheat closed up 1% and July Kansas City wheat added 0.8%.

Cotton volume increased to an estimated 66,266 lots from 59,930 lots the prior session when spreads accounted for 39,993 lots or 67%, EFS 1,380 lots and EFP 13 lots. Options volume dipped to 7,512 lots (4,671 calls and 2,841 puts) from 7,895 lots (4,730 calls and 3,165 puts).

The USDA jacked its export estimate up 800,000 bales to 14 million, the fourth largest ever and 40% of world cotton trade. Exports are forecast at the largest since 2010-11 when they were 14.38 million bales.

Some analysts had figured exports ultimately could reach 14 million bales or maybe even a bit more, based on the recent torrid pace of sales and shipments, but even some of them hadnΆt expected USDA to go that far in this report.

Ending stocks now are expected to fall a corresponding amount to 3.7 million bales, down 100,000 bales from beginning stocks. The projected stocks-to-use ratio of 21.4% is down from 30.2% last season.

As mostly expected, estimates of U.S. production and domestic mill use were unchanged at 17.23 million and 3.3 million bales, respectively.

The USDA projected the marketing year average price received by producers to average between 67 and 69 cents, a reduction of 1 cent at the upper end of the range. The midpoint of 68 cents would compare with an average of 61.20 cents last season and 61.30 cents two years ago.

Globally, production increased 580,000 bales or 0.55% to 106.3 million and consumption eked up 160,000 bales or 0.14% to 112.59 million. Ending stocks rose 430,000 bales or 0.48% to 90.91 million. This reflects a stocks-to-use ratio of 80.5%, down from 87.3% last season.

World consumption is expected to exceed production by 6.29 million bales, compared with 6.71 million bales foreseen last month and a crop shortfall last season of 14.53 million bales.

China accounted for 250,000 bales of the increase in world ending stocks as its projected carryout rose to 49.51 million bales, 54.1% of the total. The crop estimate for China was up 250,000 bales to 22.75 million, up from 22 million bales last season.

Higher production estimates for China and Brazil were only partly offset by a slightly smaller crop in Australia. Lower expected exports for India, Australia and Uzbekistan largely offset increases for the United States, Brazil and Greece.

On the weather scene, a frontal system is expected to bring widespread soaking rains to the Texas High and Rolling Plains on Wednesday before diminishing on Thursday.

Rain chances in the Lubbock region are rated up to 80% Wednesday night, declining to 20% Thursday night. Rainfall amounts are projected at 1.59 inches at Lubbock. This follows gusty winds and record high date temperatures over the weekend when Lubbock registered a high of 93 degrees on Saturday, topping the old mark of 91 in 1930.

Futures open interest fell 7,220 lots Monday to 252,099. MayΆs OI dropped 12,735 lots to 70,956 and JulyΆs rose by 4,312 lots to 87,926, the first time it has topped MayΆs. DecemberΆs increased 1,048 lots to 82,054.

Certificated stocks grew 271 bales to 328,053. There were 1,678 newly certified bales at Galveston and 1,407 bales decertified at Dallas-Fort Worth. Awaiting review were 1,400 bales at Galveston.