Traders looked ahead to U.S. weekly export sales and supply-demand reports from USDA. World cotton trade expected to increase by 3% on stable demand and larger production, ICAC says.
Cotton futures finished mixed on thin volume Thursday, down three to 28 points in 2016-17 marketing year deliveries and up 16 to 59 points in 2017-18 contracts, as traders looked ahead to U.S. weekly export sales and monthly supply-demand reports from USDA.
Benchmark December completed an inside day, settling down 25 points to 69.29 cents, just above the middle of its narrow 61-point range from down a point at 69.53 to down 62 points at 68.92 cents.
Nearby October closed down 28 points to 69.25 cents and March dropped 16 points to 69.60 cents, while December 2017 gained 38 points to settle at 69.38 cents.
Volume dwindled to an estimated 12,854 lots from 16,683 lots the previous session when spreads accounted for 4,001 lots or 24%, EFS 109 lots and EFP 28 lots. Options volume totaled 1,033 calls and 2,061 puts.
Strong export sales are expected in the delayed USDA report at 7:30 a.m. CDT Friday for the week ended Sept. 1. Net upland sales, however, are considered likely to slow from the 309,200 running bales — largest since January 2015 — reported the previous week for shipment this season.
World cotton trade is expected to increase by 3% to 7.49 million metric tons (34.4 million 480-pound bales) this season amid stable demand and larger crops, says the International Cotton Advisory Committee.
Imports by Bangladesh are projected to grow by 12% to 1.2 million tons (5.5 million bales), making it the worldΆs largest importer, ICAC says in its September supply-demand report. VietnamΆs imports also are forecast to grow by 12%, rising to 1.1 million tons (5.05 million bales.)
After four seasons of contraction, imports by China could edge up to 980,000 tons (4.5 million bales), ICAC said, noting that consumption remains much larger than production.
Meanwhile, stable mill use and a smaller crop are likely to lead to a 32% decrease in Indian exports, which are forecast at 846,000 tons (3.89 million bales), ICAC said.
Last month, USDA forecast a 25% increase in U.S. exports to 11.5 million bales, which would be the highest in four seasons. This would mean the U.S. share of world cotton trade — estimated by USDA at 34 million bales — would rise to nearly 34% from last seasonΆs 26%.
The ICACΆs latest world estimates projected a 6% increase from last season to 22.45 million tons (103.11 million bales) in production and a a fractional 0.16% decrease in consumption at 23.81 million tons (109.36 million bales), reflecting a crop shortfall of 1.36 million tons (6.25 million bales).
The USDAΆs updated U.S. and world and supply-demand estimates are scheduled for release at 11 a.m. CDT on Monday.
Futures open interest expanded 1,642 lots Wednesday to 232,289, with DecemberΆs up 843 lots to 155,567 and MarchΆs up 114 lots to 50,383. Cert stocks increased 197 bales to 43,254. There were 800 newly certified bales and 603 bales decertified.