July completed monthly reversal down. Export commitments reached 10.336 million bales for 2013-14 and 1.989 million bales for 2014-15. Upland outstanding loans fell to 788,773 bales.
Cotton futures settled mixed Friday as spot July posted a small gain but completed a monthly outside-range reversal to the downside.
July closed up 12 points to 86.27 cents, in the upper third of its 128-point range from up 54 points at 86.69 to down 74 points at 85.41. It lost 802 points or 8.5% for the month, rallying above the April high to 95.10 and then reversing to finish below last monthΆs low of 90.02.
December settled down 91 points to 77.47 cents, a new low close since Feb. 26 and in the lower quarter of its 104-point range from down six points at 78.32 to down 110 points at 77.28 cents. It shed 593 points or 7.1% for the month.
The inverted July-December switch again widened in the face of the second day of the Rogers index fund roll. This activity is expected to gain momentum next week with the onset of the Goldman roll.
Volume slowed to an estimated 26,600 lots from 29,373 lots the previous session when spreads totaled 13,584 lots or 46%, EFS 168 lots and EFP 89 lots. Options volume totaled 3,592 calls and 1,495 puts.
Net U.S. all-cotton export sales for delivery this season of 65,400 running bales during the week ended May 22, down from the prior weekΆs 360,000 RB, brought 2013-14 commitments to 10.336 million bales.
Commitments are more than 102% of the USDA export forecast, compared with about 103% of final shipments at the corresponding point last season. The gap behind year-ago commitments widened 54,000 bales to 2.669 million.
All-cotton shipments climbed to 228,200 running bales from 197,000 the previous week and boosted exports for the season to 8.845 million RB, about 88% of the USDA estimate. A year ago, exports were about 86% of final shipments.
Shipments trailed year-ago exports by 2.044 million bales or by about 19%. The latest USDA estimate is for exports to fall 20% from last seasonΆs shipments, which were the largest since 2010-11.
To achieve the estimate, shipments need to average roughly 138,100 running bales a week over the nine weeks remaining in the crop year.
All-cotton sales for shipment next season of 116,100 bales, down from 158,400 bales the week before, hiked 2014-15 commitments to over 1.989 million RB, about 306,000 RB ahead of forward bookings a year ago.
The new-crop commitments are 21% of USDAΆs 2014-15 export projection. A year ago, forward sales were 17% of the current 2013-14 export estimate.
The USDAΆs initial 2014-15 export forecast is down 4% from this seasonΆs estimate to 9.7 million statistical bales, which would be the smallest shipments abroad since 2000-01. This has been attributed largely to reduced foreign import demand, especially from China.
Meanwhile, repayments reduced U.S. outstanding upland loans by 44,070 running bales to 788,773 during the week ended May 26, according to the latest USDA figures.
The loans outstanding included 57,639 bales of Form A issued to individual growers and 743,708 bales of Form G issued to marketing cooperatives or loan servicing agents.
Futures open interest expanded 2,085 lots Thursday to 189,289, with JulyΆs down 445 lots to 101,647 and DecemberΆs up 2,228 lots to 76,290. Cert stocks declined 2,848 bales to 417,821. There were 3,010 newly certified bales, 5,858 bales decertified and 1,744 bales awaiting review.
World values as measured by the Cotlook A Index gained 130 points Friday morning to 90.70 cents. The premium to ThursdayΆs July futures settlement widened two points to 4.55 cents.
Forward A Index values for 2014-15 rose 75 points to 86.65 cents, widening the discount to the 2013-14 index to 4.05 cents and the premium to ThursdayΆs December futures close by nine points to 8.27 cents.
