By Keith Brown, DTN Contributing Cotton Analyst 

The cotton market was lower Friday despite spiking gold, energies and grains. Rumors of Russian troop movements into Ukraine resulted in a huge, two-sided reaction as markets headed to the weekend. To that end, at its worst, the Dow Jones was off 525 points. For cotton, we think there is very little price risk in the Russian and Ukrainian episode, but certainly if things were to get out of hand, anything could happen. 

Currently, the cotton market is technically stalled between the high and low of the Feb. 1 trading range. The last crop update from USDA painted a bearish domestic situation with higher carryout, but a more positive stance in the world. Global stocks shed some 700,000 bales.

To that end, traders are keeping tabs on the Russo/Ukraine situation, but also want to assess next week’s export sales, and eventually March cotton’s delivery. The spot contract enters delivery on March 22.

Options on the March contract will expire Friday. It appears any call below the 1.25-cent mark will be exercised long into the trade.

As of the settlement, spot March is off 1.46 cents on the week, down 2.29 cents on the month, but still up 12.68 cents on the year.

Friday, March cotton settled at 125.28 cents, down 0.38 cent, July ended at 120.12 cents, down 0.39 cent and December finished at 105.19 cents, 0.08 cent lower; estimated volume was 57,233 contracts.